Friday, April 23, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-23-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Recovers as Greece Seeks Aid; GBP, CAD Lower on Disappointing Data

Euro recovers earlier today on news that Greece has finally requested to activate the EUR 45b rescue package from EU and IMF. Greece CDS dropped back to below 600 bps level while yield on 10-year bonds also dropped back to 8.35%. Euro is lifted as the fear of default temporary eased by recovery is so far mild as market still perceive to move as negative to the Eurozone in longer term. European stocks also rebounds today which send Japanese yen lower in general. German Ifo business climate rose more than expected to 101.6 in April.

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Special Reports

UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy On Break Of 125.70

Despite yesterday's fall to 123.32, as the single currency has rebounded after holding above indicated key support at 123.15 (this week's low), suggesting further consolidation would be seen and gain to 125.15/20 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of resistance at 125.67 would revive our bullish count that c leg of wave ii has ended at 123.15 and bring further gain towards 127.69 (b leg top) but break of 127.95 is needed to confirm wave iii has commenced.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold Long Entered At 0.9225

Despite intra-day fall to 0.9184, as long as indicated support at 0.9157 (tentatively c leg and wave (ii) low) holds, prospect of another rebound remains and break of resistance at 0.9339 would add credence on our bullishness and bring retest of wave (i) top at 0.9389, above there would confirm wave (iii) has resumed and extend gain towards 0.9407 and later 0.9450.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.94; (P) 93.28; (R1) 93.81; More.

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 94.22 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a test on 94.68 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06. On the downside, below 93.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 91.59 support and bring rally resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDUSD 0.9189 0.9273 -84 -0.91%
EURAUD 1.4457 1.4331 +126 +0.87%
AUDNZD 1.2934 1.3042 -108 -0.84%
USDJPY 94.10 93.48 +62 +0.66%
EURJPY 125.04 124.27 +77 +0.62%

Last Updated: Apr 23, 13:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 23, 13:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 0.30% -1.40% -4.30%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb -2.30% -1.30% 3.80% 3.40%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Apr 104 102.1 101.9 102
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Apr 101.6 98.7 98.1 98.2
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Apr 99.3 95.3 94.4 94.5
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 A -0.30% -0.10% -3.10%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Feb 0.40% 0.60% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Feb 1.50% 0.90% -2.00% -1.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Feb 12.20% 11.20% 7.30% 7.50%
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Mar 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Mar 1.40% 1.60% 1.60%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Mar -0.20% 0.10% 0.70%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.70% 2.00% 2.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% 1.00% 0.70%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Feb -0.10% 0.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Mar -1.30% 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Mar 2.80% 0.50% 0.90%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Mar 322K 308K
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