Thursday, April 1, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-1-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Mixed Despite Strong ISM

Dollar remains firm against yen but is under much pressure against Sterling and Canadian dollar. Initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 439k. Continuing claims dropped to 4.66m. Challenger report showed planned job cuts fell by 55% yoy but increased from Feb's three year low. ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 59.6 in March with price component jumped sharply to 75. After all, there isn't much momentum in the greenback as traders hold their bet ahead of non farm payrolls and holidays.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 125.40

As euro has eased after intra-day rise to 126.62, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and whilst pullback to 125.50 cannot be ruled out, renewed buying interest should emerge around 125.36 (previous resistance turned support) and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend upmove from 119.66 in wave iii to 127.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 134.37-119.66), then towards 129.08 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 138.49 to 119.66) later this month.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9080

Aussie's near term sideways trading is expected to continue ahead of the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls and minor correction to 0.9070/80 (just below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9001 to 0.9218) cannot be ruled out, however, as long as support at 0.9001 holds, prospect of another rally remains. Above said resistance would bring retest of wave 1 top at 0.9253 and break there would confirm wave 3 is underway towards resistance at 0.9331 later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4190; (P) 1.4255; (R1) 1.4304; More

EUR/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.4149 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current decline is expected to continue to 1.4 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.4242 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.4357 resistance holds and we'd expect the fall to continue sooner rather than later.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
         
AUDNZD 1.3015 1.2901 +114 +0.88%
CADJPY 92.80 92.02 +78 +0.84%
CHFJPY 89.35 88.65 +70 +0.78%
NZDUSD 0.7054 0.7105 -51 -0.72%
GBPJPY 142.85 141.87 +98 +0.69%

Last Updated: Apr 01, 13:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 01, 13:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar -15 -13 -14
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb -1.40% 0.30% 1.20% 1.10%
06:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb -9.30% -0.80% -8.10%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar -31K 8K 7K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar 8.00% 8.20% 8.20% 8.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 10.00% 10.00% 9.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 1.50% 1.10% 0.90%
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 1.93 1.9 1.87 1.9
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar -23K 40K -20K -24K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 61 62.6
14:00 USD Factory Orders Feb 0.50% 1.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M 7.3M
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