Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-7-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Commodity Currencies Remain Strong While Europeans are Weak

Markets continue to be dominated by strength in commodity currencies and weakness in European majors in general, with dollar stuck in the middle mixed. FOMC minutes released overnight provided little inspiration. Forecasts of real economic activities remained largely unchanged from previous meeting but policymakers were surprised by deceleration of inflation. At the same time, the Fed noted unemployment would be undermining recovery. Policymakers also discussed about the use of the phrase 'extended period' in the meeting statement. It's mentioned in the minutes that 'nearly all members judged that it was appropriate to reiterate the expectation that economic conditions - including low levels of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations - were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period, but one member believed that communicating such an expectation would create conditions that could lead to financial imbalances'. The Fed also noted that 'the duration of the extended period prior to policy firming might last for quite some time and could even increase if the economic outlook worsened appreciably or if trend inflation appeared to be declining further'. In short, rate hike remains distant.

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Special Report

The Fed Stays Dovish. 'Extended Period' Does Not Refer To Calendar Time But Economic Development

The FOMC minutes for March's meeting unveiled the Fed's dovish monetary outlook. While forecasts of real economic activities remained largely unchanged from previous meeting, policymakers were surprised by deceleration of inflation. At the same time, the Fed noted unemployment would be undermining recovery. Concerning the phrase 'extended period', the minutes indicated that it's not about calendar time but depended on evolution of the economy.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3455

Euro's selloff from 1.3591 to yesterday's low of 1.3355 suggests the correction from 1.3267 has possibly ended there and further weakness to 1.3300 is likely, however, break of recent low at 1.3267 is needed to confirm early decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3246 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) and then 1.3200 which should hold from here due to oversold condition.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.85

Although dollar has rebounded after intra-day fall to 93.56 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, break of recent high at 94.78 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 95.00 and possibly towards 95.50, however, loss of upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond the latter level and risk has increased for a correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9202; (P) 0.9245; (R1) 0.9324; More

AUD/USD is finally building up upside momentum again and surged through 0.9250 resistance to confirm rally resumption. Further rise should now be seen to have a retest on 0.9404 high next. On the downside, note that break of 0.9163 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction before staging another rise.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 94.04 93.62 +42 +0.45%
EURCAD 1.3361 1.3416 -55 -0.41%
GBPCAD 1.5225 1.5285 -60 -0.39%
AUDCAD 0.9260 0.9295 -35 -0.38%
NZDUSD 0.7040 0.7065 -25 -0.36%

Last Updated: Apr 07, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 07, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Mar 1.20% -- 1.70%
03:01 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Feb 3.80% 4.40%
07:55 EUR German PMI Services Mar F 54.7 54.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar F 53.7 53.7
08:30 GBP PMI Services Mar 58 58.4
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jan 0.70% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.10% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 F -2.10% -2.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Feb 0.20% 0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb -0.40% -1.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Feb -0.50% 4.30%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Feb 22.60% 19.60%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Feb 2.00% -4.90%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Mar 55 51.9
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M 2.9M
16:00 USD Fed's William Dudley Speaks -- --
17:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks -- --
18:00 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks -- --
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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