Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-21-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Tumbles as Greek Bond Yield Surges Again

Euro dips broadly again as markets remains concerned with the Greece situation. The worry is reflected in CDS on Greece which surged to new record of 488.5. Also, yield on Greek 10-year government bonds rose for the seventh day to above 8% level. Spread between Greek 10 year bonds and German bund also skied to new record high of 5.18%. Greece begins talk with IMF, ECB and EC today on details of the rescue package. The discussion is expected to last two weeks and will focus on the terms and conditions of the bailout plan, which could then be activated quickly upon Greece's request. Meanwhile, Greece FM Papaconstantinou said that Greece might need to activate the aid before the talk ends.

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Special Reports

BOE Kept Rates and Asset Buying Program Unchanged. Members Silent ahead of Election

The BOE voted 9-0 in April to keep the policy rate at 0.5% as well as to maintain the asset purchase program at 200B pound. At the last BOE meeting before election (May's meeting is postponed to May 10, a Monday after general election on May 6), policymakers refrained from saying anything controversial. Therefore, contents of the minutes were rather standard.

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BOC Dropped the Conditional Pledge to Keep Rates Low, Signaling a Rate Hike Soon

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish meeting statement in April. While keeping the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25%, the BOC, for the first time since last April, removed the commitment that 'Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'. The decision was driven strong economic recovery in recent months.

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UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.50

As the single currency staged a strong rebound after this week's initial fall to 123.15, suggesting c leg as well as wave ii from 127.95 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 126.10/15 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.95 to 123.15) but above 126.65/70 is needed to retain bullishness for further gain towards resistance at 127.69 (b leg top), then retest of 127.95.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9225

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after this week's rally from 0.9157, suggesting the c leg of wave (ii) correction from 0.9389 has ended there and upside bias remains for a retest of said resistance, break there would confirm wave (iii) has resumed and extend gain towards 0.9407 and later 0.9450.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3401; (P) 1.3461 (R1) 1.3495; More.

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3436 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3266/82 support zone. As discussed before, correction from 1.3266 might have completed with three waves up to 1.3691 already. Decisive break of 1.3266 will confirm medium term fall resumption to 1.3 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.3447 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 1.3691 will indicate that correction from 1.3266 is still in progress for 1.3817 before completion.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURCAD 1.3338 1.3413 -75 -0.56%
EURGBP 0.8699 0.8746 -47 -0.54%
EURJPY 124.63 125.22 -59 -0.47%
EURUSD 1.3379 1.3434 -55 -0.41%
AUDCAD 0.9265 0.9302 -37 -0.40%

Last Updated: Apr 21, 13:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 21, 13:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb 0.50% -- 0.20% 0.40%
8:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes -- --
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Mar -32.9K -10.0K -32.3K -40.1K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Mar 4.80% 4.90% 4.90%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb 8.00% 7.80% 7.80%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Feb -1.2% 1.20% 3.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.1M -2.2M
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