Monday, April 26, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-26-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Weakens as Greece Aid Faces German Hurdles

Euro's recovery lost steam today on renewed concern over Greece situation as markets still see lots of uncertainty on implementation of the aid package for Greece. Spread between Greek 10-year bond and German bund yield surged again to 12 year high of 679 bps. CDS on Greece also jumped to over 700 bps. There are much voices from German that opposes to the aid package. Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said Berlin opposes handing over financial aid to Greece without Athens first presenting a credible program of debt reduction and the opinion was echoed by Free Democratic Party. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called for speedy approval of the aid package, by May 19. However, opposition Social Democrats said they would not back an accelerated parliamentary process to approve the aid. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece needs to show its budget is on a "sustainable" path and a full German agreement to a bailout may take "a few days."

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Special Reports

RBNZ to Leave Rates Unchanged at 2.5%, May Change the 'Middle of 2010' Statement

Similar to the consensus, we expect the RBNZ will keep the OCR at 2.5% at the meeting on April 29. Therefore, focus of the meeting is on the central bank's economic outlook as well as its implications on monetary stance. The RBNZ has guided in the post-meeting statement that it would 'begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010' since April 2009 with brief modification in December. As we approaches 'the middle of 2010', we are interested to see if the central bank will make any change to the sentence. In our opinion, the RBNZ will change it to a conditional statement, saying a rate hike in coming months depending on economic data and inflation outlook.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 125.70

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 126.30, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest further consolidation would be seen but as long as indicated minor support at 125.05 holds, prospect of another rebound remains. Above said resistance would signal upmove has resumed and extend gain to 127.00, then towards 127.69 (b leg top) but break of 127.95 is needed to confirm wave iii has commenced.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold Long Entered At 0.9225

Although aussie fell marginally to as low as 0.9170 last Friday, price did stay above indicated support at 0.9157 (tentatively c leg and wave (ii) low) and staged a rebound from 0.9170, retaining our bullishness for test of indicated resistance at 0.9339, break there would bring retest of wave (i) top at 0.9389, above there would confirm wave (iii) has resumed and extend gain towards chart resistance 0.9407 and later 0.9450.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3255; (P) 1.3327 (R1) 1.3453; More.

EUR/USD's fall today argues that recovery from 1.3201 might be completed at 1.3399 already and turns intraday bias neutral. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3421) and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3201 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3113 next. Though, sustained trading above the 4 hours 55 EMA will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus to falling trend line resistance at 1.3625 instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURGBP 0.8614 0.8702 -88 -1.02%
NZDJPY 68.06 67.38 +68 +1.00%
GBPCHF 1.6643 1.6491 +152 +0.91%
NZDUSD 0.7234 0.7171 +63 +0.87%
AUDNZD 1.2830 1.2929 -99 -0.77%

Last Updated: Apr 26, 14:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 26, 14:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- USD IMF World Bank G-20 G7 Meet in Washington D.C. -- --
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar -1.10% -1.30% -1.30% -1.20%
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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