Friday, April 16, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-16-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Edges Up on Strong Housing Data

Dollar edges up in early US session after better than expected housing data. Housing starts climbed 1.6% to 626k annualized rate in March while building permits rose an impressive 7.5% to 685k annualized rate, highest level since October 2008. Together with NAHB housing market index, which jumped sharply from 15 to 19 in April, the data eased concern of a double dip recession in the US housing markets and suggest that recovery might regain momentum going forward.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.40

Although euro rebounded after intra-day fall to 125.08 (just held above indicated 61.8% retracement level at 125.06), above resistance at 126.69 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.69 to 125.08) is needed to signal retreat from 127.69 has ended at 125.08 and bring test of this resistance, however, only above resistance at 127.95 (wave i top) would confirm upmove has resumed in wave iii to 128.50 and 129.00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9170

Although aussie rebounded after intra-day fall to 0.9285, above resistance at 0.9389 is needed to signal upmove has resumed in wave (iii) for retest of chart resistance at 0.9407, then 0.9450, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Below said intra-day minor support at 0.9285 would bring c leg of wave (ii) to 0.9195 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (i) from 0.9001) but 0.9149 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold, bring another rally later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0509; (P) 1.0560; (R1) 1.0615; More.

USD/CHF's break of 1.0615 suggests that fall from 1.0785 is completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for 1.0785 resistance first. As discussed before, correction from 1.0897 should have completed with three waves down to 1.0434. Break of 1.0785 will affirm this case and bring retest of 1.0897. On the downside, below 1.0555 will delay the bullish view and bring another fall. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained above 1.0434 support and bring strong rebound.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURJPY 125.19 126.27 -108 -0.86%
CHFJPY 87.30 88.05 -75 -0.86%
AUDJPY 86.20 86.92 -72 -0.84%
GBPJPY 142.97 144.13 -116 -0.81%
CADJPY 92.21 92.83 -62 -0.67%

Last Updated: Apr 16, 13:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 16, 13:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:00 USD Fed Janet Yellen Speaks -- --
07:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M Mar 0.50% 0.40% -0.30%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y Mar 0.00% -0.10% -1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Mar 0.90% 0.90% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar 1.40% 1.50% 1.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Mar 1.00% 0.90% 0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 3.3B 3.1B 1.8B 1.9B
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Feb 0.10% 1.00% 2.40%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Feb 8.10% 7.00% 0.00%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Mar 626K 610K 575K 616K
12:30 USD Building Permits Mar 685K 625K 612K 637K
13:00 USD Fed Warsh Speaks in New York City -- --
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr P 75 73.6
17:00 USD Fed Hoenig Speaks in New York City -- --
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