Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-21-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Canadian Dollar Extends Overnight Rally, UK Events in Focus

Canadian dollar extends overnight rally that's fueled by speculations of rate hike from BoC on June 1 after an hawkish statement. USD/CAD dives through recent low of 0.9952 to resume its march away from parity. EUR/CAD also has its sight on recent low of 1.3339. There is additional support to the Loonie with crude oil trading above 84 level. While dollar is broadly lower against major currencies as risk aversion eased, Euro is lagging behind on concern that the aid package for Greece will fail to materialize. Talk between Greece, EU, IMF and ECB will begin today.

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Special Reports

BOC Dropped the Conditional Pledge to Keep Rates Low, Signaling a Rate Hike Soon

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish meeting statement in April. While keeping the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25%, the BOC, for the first time since last April, removed the commitment that 'Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'. The decision was driven strong economic recovery in recent months.

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UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3535

Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.3397, lack of follow through selling and current recovery suggests consolidation would take place and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3461) would bring another bounce to 1.3523-25 (yesterday's high and current level of the Kijun-Sen), however, price should falter well below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3571) and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend to 1.3350 but a firm break below there is needed to confirm our view that correction from 1.3267 low has ended at 1.3692 earlier and bring retest of support area at 1.3267-82 later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY- Buy At 92.40

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting bullishness remains for the rise from this week's low at 91.60 to extend gain towards indicated resistance area at 93.73-79, however, a firm break there is needed (this would also penetrate the upper Kumo at 93.62) to signal the correction from 94.78 top has ended at 91.60 and extend headway towards 94.25/30, above there would bring resumption of upmove for retest of 94.78 later, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0112; (P) 1.0164; (R1) 1.0193; More.

USD/CAD's sharp fall today sent the pair through 1.0100 minor support decisively and argues that correction from 0.9952 might be completed at 1.0214 already. Nevertheless, as USD/CAD is still held above 0.9952 low, we'll stay neutral for the moment. Break of 0.9952 will indicate that medium term down trend has resumed and should target 0.9823 support next. On the upside, above 1.0100 will bring more sideway consolidations first.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 93.83 93.32 +51 +0.54%
EURCAD 1.3353 1.3413 -60 -0.45%
USDCAD 0.9944 0.9986 -42 -0.42%
GBPCAD 1.5278 1.5334 -56 -0.37%
AUDCAD 0.9275 0.9302 -27 -0.29%

Last Updated: Apr 21, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 21, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb 0.50% -- 0.20% 0.40%
8:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes -- --
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Mar -10.0K -32.3K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Mar 4.90% 4.90%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb 7.80% 7.80%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Feb 1.20% 3.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.1M -2.2M
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