Thursday, April 29, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-29-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

More Consolidations as Markets Stabilized

Markets stabilized after German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged to speed up the process of loan provisions to Greece overnight even though S&P cut Spain's credit rating by 1 notch to AA with a negative outlook. Sentiments were also helped as Fed kept the "extended period" language and helped US stock closed higher. Asian markets are steady with Japan markets closed while crude oil is mildly up at 83 level. Some consolidations would probably be seen today in the forex markets but Euro is still vulnerable to the downside.

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Special Reports

RBNZ Pledges To Remove Stimulus In Coming Months

The RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% but expected to 'begin removing policy stimulus over the coming months, provided the economy continues to evolve as projected'. This is inline with our expectations that the central bank should replace the 'middle of 2010' guidance with a conditional statement to pave the way for a first rate hike in June. Given the robust economic development since the last meeting, the RBNZ also turned more optimistic on the growth outlook.

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FOMC's Statement Contains Few Surprises: Mild Upgrades On Outlook, No Change In Monetary Stance

The FOMC made few changes at April's meeting. While mildly adjusting assessment on economic outlook, especially on housing and employment, the Fed maintained the policy rate at 0-0.25% and reiterated the exceptionally low rate policy will be kept for an extended period. Concerning inflation, the stance was exactly the same as the prior meeting.

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Greek Bonds Become Junk. What Are The Concerns?

S&P cut its credit rating for Greek government bonds by 3 notches, from BBB+ to BB+, to junk after assessing the political, economic and budgetary challenges the country is facing. The agency assigned a recovery rating of '4' to Greece's debt issues, indicating bondholders may recover on average 30-50% of their initial investments in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default. Outlook remains 'negative' and further downgrade is likely if the government's ability to implement its fiscal and structural reform program turns out to be 'materially' weaker that what is currently estimated.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0805

Although the greenback extend recent rise to a marginal high of 1.0925 yesterday, the retreat from there suggests minor consolidation would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0812) cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0745) should hold and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend gain to 1.0970/80, however, reckon resistance at 1.1026 would remain intact.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5290

Although the British pound finally penetrated indicated support at 1.5130 and confirmed top has been formed at 1.5524 earlier, lack of follow through selling and the recovery from 1.5126 (yesterday's low) suggest minor consolidation would be seen and renewed selling interest would emerge below resistance at 1.5295 (previous support turned resistance) and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend decline from 1.5524 top for weakness towards 1.5065 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4781 to 1.5524).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5125; (P) 1.5206; (R1) 1.5288; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.5287 minor resistance intact. As noted before, consolidation from 1.4783 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5521 already. Further decline is expected to retest 1.4783 low first. On the upside, above 1.5287 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But we'd stay bearish as long as 1.5496 resistance holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDNZD 1.2877 1.2816 +61 +0.47%
NZDUSD 0.7187 0.7206 -19 -0.26%
NZDJPY 67.58 67.74 -16 -0.24%
EURCAD 1.3319 1.3343 -24 -0.18%
EURAUD 1.4258 1.4283 -25 -0.18%

Last Updated: Apr 29, 07:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 29, 07:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 567M 375M 321M 335M
0:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Feb -0.30% -- -0.20%
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Apr -10K -31K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Apr 8.00% 8.00%
8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar -0.10% -0.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 99.4 97.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F -15 -15
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr -8 -10
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr 3 1
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 442K 456K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 70B 73B
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