Thursday, April 22, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-22-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Sterling Firm ahead of Economic Data

Euro remains weak as the outlook is clouded by the result of the talk between Greece and EU/IMF on rescue package. The meeting is expected to be concluded by May 15 with a joint text, which would allow time for Greece to roll over debt maturing next month. Sterling is firm in general as supported by buying against Euro in crosses. Some volatility is anticipated in the pound with important economic data ahead. Canadian dollar is the start performer this week, rising over 2% against Euro and Yen. However, it's somewhat losing momentum after making 22 month high against dollar.

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Special Reports

UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0620

Although the greenback rose to 1.0725 yesterday, as price has retreated after faltering below there today, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0644-46 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and the Kijun-Sen) but renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.0614 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0503 to 1.0725) and support at 1.0603 should hold, bring another rally. Above said minor resistance would extend gain towards 1.0786 resistance, however, a firm break above there is needed o retain bullishness and signal entire correction from 1.0899 top has ended at 1.0435 earlier, then test of next resistance at 1.0805/10 and possibly towards 1.0850 would be seen later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.30

Despite yesterday's marginal rise to 93.45, the retreat from there consolidation would be seen and weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 92.52) cannot be ruled out , however, reckon 92.30 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 91.60) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rally later. Above indicated resistance area at 93.73-79 (this would also break the Ichimoku cloud top at 93.49) would confirm the correction from 94.78 top has ended at 91.60 and extend headway towards 94.25/30, above there would bring resumption of early upmove for retest of 94.78 later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9238; (P) 0.9287; (R1) 0.9317; More

AUD/USD's break of 0.9263 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place and turns bias neutral. Some sideway trading might be seen first. As AUD/USD is trading inside near term rising channel, further rally would remain in favor to retest 0.9404 high. However, note that sustained trading below the channel support (now at 0.9179) will argue that whole rise from 0.8577 is finished at 0.9380 and further decline should then be seen to 0.9000 support for confirmation.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.7126 0.7096 +30 +0.42%
NZDJPY 66.32 66.12 +20 +0.30%
GBPUSD 1.5447 1.5409 +38 +0.25%
USDCAD 0.9972 0.9996 -24 -0.24%
AUDNZD 1.3024 1.3051 -27 -0.21%

Last Updated: Apr 22, 07:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 22, 07:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Mar 0.67T 0.66T 0.47T
06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Mar 2.01B 1.79B 1.29B
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Apr A 55.1 54.9
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Apr A 60.2 60.2
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr A 54.4 54.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Apr A 56.7 56.6
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar 24.0B 12.4B
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.60% 2.10%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 2.30% 3.50%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.20%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Mar P -- 3.90%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr -- 53.8
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Apr -32 -37
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Mar 0.70% 0.80%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Mar 0.50% -0.60%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Mar 6.10% 4.40%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Mar 0.90% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 484K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Mar 5.30M 5.02M
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Feb -0.10% -0.60%
14:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 77B 87B
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