Thursday, April 8, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-8-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Crosses Broadly Lower as Treasury Yield Tumbled

Yen crosses were broadly lower overnight following sharp fall in treasury yields which saw yield on 10-year notes down to 3.83%, comparing to this week's high of 4.013%. The move was triggered by surprisingly good auction results of 1o year notes, which was sold at a yield of 3.90%. The bid-to-cover ratio was a a record of 3.72, which indicates strong demand for US treasuries. Also, it's the second time that yield on 10 year notes failed to stand above 4.00% since last November. We'd probably see more yen strength in near term going forward.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3425

As the single currency has fallen after brief recovery, suggesting early decline would resume for a retest of recent low at 1.3267, however, break there is needed to confirm and extend weakness to 1.3246 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) and then towards 1.3200, however, near term oversold condition would prevent sharp fall below 1.3150 and 1.3100/10 (approx. 61.8% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) should hold, bring correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY- Buy At 92.75

The greenback fell again after meeting renewed selling at 94.27 yesterday as suggested in our previous update and although initial downside bias remains for retracement of recent rise to 92.85/86 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 89.75-94.78), support at 92.12 should hold and bring another rebound later. A breach of said yesterday's high at 94.27 would signal the pullback from 94.78 is over and retest of this level would follow but break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 95.00 and then towards 95.50.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0004; (P) 1.0032; (R1) 1.0090; More.

USD/CAD failed to sustain below parity and the break of 1.0470 minor resistance indicates that a temporary low is in place at 0.9976. Some consolidations should now be seen but still, break of 1.0302 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed out. Otherwise, another fall would remain in favor. Below 0.9976 will target 0.9823 support next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 65.54 65.96 -42 -0.64%
GBPJPY 141.41 142.22 -81 -0.57%
NZDUSD 0.7035 0.7066 -31 -0.44%
EURJPY 124.02 124.55 -53 -0.43%
CHFJPY 86.56 86.92 -36 -0.42%

Last Updated: Apr 08, 06:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 08, 06:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Feb 1.12T 1.25T 1.71T
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Feb -5.40% 3.70% -3.70%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Feb -7.10% 2.10% -1.10%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Mar 19.6K 20.1K 0.4K -4.7K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Mar 5.30% 5.30% 5.30%
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Mar 4.10% 4.10%
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Mar P -- 217.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.50% -0.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Feb -0.50% -1.50%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Feb 0.60% -0.90%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb 0.80% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.00% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Feb -0.40% -1.30%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Feb 1.00% 0.60%
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 433K 439K
12:30 USD Fed's Duke Speaks -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 29B 12B
14:30 USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks -- --
18:45 USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks -- --
20:00 USD Fed's Kohn Speaks -- --
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Mar -- 0.30%
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