Friday, April 9, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-9-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

CAD Down on Job Data, Sterling Lifted by PPI

Canadian dollar retreats sharply in early US session. Employment report showed 17.9k expansion in the job market in March, less than consensus expectation of 25k and was less than February's 20.9k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2% where part of the markets expect a dip to 8.1%. USD/CAD had another test on parity earlier today but once again failed to make a breakthrough. Some more consolidations would be likely in USD/CAD in near term.

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Special Report

ECB Left Rates Unchanged, Discussed about New Collateral Framework

As expected, the ECB left the main refinancing rate at 1% in April. Outlook on growth and inflation were largely unchanged from previous meetings. Focus of the press conference was on Greece's issue and the new collateral framework.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.70

Despite falling sharply from 127.95 to 123.43 (yesterday's low), as the single currency staged a strong rebound from there suggests correction from 127.95 has possibly ended at 123.43 as wave ii and gain to 126.22 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.95 to 123.43) is seen but break of 127.00/10 is needed to confirm this view and bring retest o 127.95 later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9180

Although aussie has risen after brief pullback, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 0.9331 and risk is seen for minor correction back towards 0.9170/80 but support at 0.9130/35 should hold and bring another upmove later. Above resistance at 0.9331 would confirm upmove has resumed and extend towards next chart point at 0.9407, then towards 0.9490/00.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9989; (P) 1.0047; (R1) 1.0076; More.

USD/CAD has another test on parity today but rebounds strongly in early US session. Consolidation from 0.9976 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out but after all, break of 1.0302 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed out. Otherwise, another fall would remain in favor. Below 0.9976 will will confirm down trend resumption and target 0.9823 support next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 66.64 66.00 +64 +0.96%
GBPCAD 1.5446 1.5307 +139 +0.90%
GBPJPY 143.83 142.63 +120 +0.83%
AUDCAD 0.9365 0.9305 +60 +0.64%
NZDUSD 0.7115 0.7070 +45 +0.63%

Last Updated: Apr 09, 12:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 09, 12:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 USD Fed Bernanke speaks -- --
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 12.1B 11.4B 8.0B
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Mar 3.60% 1.30% 0.10% 0.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Mar 10.10% 7.10% 6.90% 7.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Mar 0.90% 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Mar 5.00% 4.40% 4.10% 4.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar 3.60% 3.10% 2.90% 3.00%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Mar 17.9K 25.0K 20.9K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Mar 8.20% 8.20% 8.20%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.40% -0.20%
Suggested Readings

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