Saturday, April 17, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 4-17-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report

Sentiments Shifted from Risk Seeking to Risk Averse

Markets sentiments changed from risk seeking to risk aversion over last week which resulted in sharp, broad based rally the Japanese yen and strong rebound in dollar. First there was the never-ending drama of the Greece situation and everyone are uncertain on whether Greece will need to get a bailout, when, and where from. That resulted in widening of Greece bond German bund spread and undermine markets confidence on Euro. Secondly, there were speculations that China will tighten against after raising minimum mortgage rates and down payment ratios. Thirdly, news brokeout on Friday about SEC suing Goldman Sachs for fraud related to collateralized debt obligations. Investor rushed out of risky assets which sent DOW down by -1.13% and barely manage to hold above 11000 level.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY had another rally attempt last week but failed below 127.88 resistance and dropped sharply. Outlook is mixed for the moment as on the one hand, the head and shoulder bottom pattern suggested that EUR/JPY has reversed. On the hand, we have not seen decisive momentum to stay above 55 days EMA yet. We'll stay neutral first. On the downside, through, break of 123.41 support will start to argue that choppy rise from 119.64 is merely a correction and has completed at 127.88 already. Intraday bias will be flipped to the downside for 121.05 support for confirmation. Break will target a new low below 119.64. On the upside, above 126.07 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Break of 127.88 will affirm the bullish case that EUR/JPY is resuming medium term rebound.

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Weekly Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 65.30 66.71 -141 -2.16%
AUDJPY 85.16 86.97 -181 -2.13%
CADJPY 90.99 92.91 -192 -2.11%
GBPJPY 141.58 143.23 -165 -1.17%
USDJPY 92.12 93.18 -106 -1.15%

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