Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-20-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Retreat as Goldman Fears Eased

Dollar and yen weakened as stocks rebounded on news that was split 3-2 when voting on the possibility of suing Goldman Sachs on frauds. Investors viewed that as a sign of unfirm base for the prosecution. DOW managed to rebound by more than 70 pts to close at 11092 and hold above 11000 level. Asian stocks followed with Nikkei up 56 pts. Meanwhile, crude oil is now trading back above 82 level while gold has 1140 back into its radar. Risk aversion is temporarily eased however there are still concerns that Goldman's probe might spread to other banks.

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Special Reports

BOC to Leave Policy Rate Unchanged. Focus on Growth Outlook

While it's widely anticipated that the BOC will leave its overnight rate unchanged at 0.25%, the post-meeting minutes should capture a lot of interests as recent strong economic data in Canada and the US, its closest counterpart, boosted expectations of upgrades on economic forecasts. The market also speculates the central bank will begin rate hikes in coming months on heightened inflation outlook.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF- Sell At 1.0750

Despite yesterday's retreat from 1.0691, just like we suggested in our previous update that as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0597) holds, near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.0503 to extend towards 1.0750/55, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon resistance at 1.0786 would hold and bring retreat later. Below the Kijun-Sen would suggest rebound from 1.0503 is over, then weakness to 1.0545/55 would follow but support at 1.0503 should limit downside. Looking ahead, only break of this support would signal the decline from 1.0899 top has resumed for eventual retest of 1.0435.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3545

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.3416 yesterday and further consolidation would take place with mild upside bias for another recovery, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge around 1.3545-47 (previous support turned resistance and current level of the Kijun-Sen) and bring decline later. Break of said support would extend the fall from 1.3692 to 1.3390 and then towards 1.3350. Looking ahead, a firm break below latter support is needed to confirm our view that correction from 1.3267 low has ended at 1.3692 earlier and bring retest of support area at 1.3267-82.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5237; (P) 1.5289; (R1) 1.5387; More

GBP/USD recovers after dropping to 1.5192 but upside was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA so far. Also, with 1.5364 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline is still expected. As discussed before, the three wave correction from 1.4783 should have completed at 1.5521 already. Below 1.5192 will target a retest on 1.4783/4798 support zone next. On the upside, however, above 1.5364 will turn intraday bias neutral and delay the bearish case.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 86.21 85.34 +87 +1.01%
EURAUD 1.4483 1.4598 -115 -0.79%
AUDNZD 1.3081 1.2985 +96 +0.73%
GBPAUD 1.6481 1.6596 -115 -0.70%
AUDUSD 0.9299 0.9237 +62 +0.67%

Last Updated: Apr 20, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 20, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.40% 0.60% -0.20%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q1 2.00% 2.30% 2.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb -0.20% -1.00% 2.90% 2.50%
1:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes -- --
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Mar 0.7% 0.40% 0.00%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Mar -1.5% -1.80% -2.90%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb -5.3B -8.1B
8:30 GBP CPI M/M Mar 0.30% 0.40%
8:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Mar 3.20% 3.00%
8:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Mar 2.80% 2.90%
8:30 GBP RPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.60%
8:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Mar 4.10% 3.70%
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr 45.2 44.5
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Apr -46.8 -51.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr -- 37.9
13:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Suggested Readings

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