Friday, April 9, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-9-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Lower as Markets Back into Risk

Dollar and yen extend weakness as markets are back into risk again. Asian stocks are generally higher following overnight recovery in US equities. Crude oil manages to rebound from yesterday's low of 84.38 and is back above 86 level. Gold also continues to build up it's momentum this week and standing firm above 1150 level. Dollar is set to resume recent decline against commodity currencies. Meanwhile, EUR/USD seems to have stabilized above recent low of 1.3266 and is possibly setting the stage for another rebound towards 1.36 level.

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Special Report

ECB Left Rates Unchanged, Discussed about New Collateral Framework

As expected, the ECB left the main refinancing rate at 1% in April. Outlook on growth and inflation were largely unchanged from previous meetings. Focus of the press conference was on Greece's issue and the new collateral framework.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 93.00

Despite falling to 92.83 yesterday, as the greenback staged a strong rebound from there partly due to cross-selling in yen, suggesting the correction from 94.78 has possibly ended at 92.83 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of 94.27 resistance. However, a breach above this resistance is needed to confirm and bring retest of 94.78 but it is necessary to see a break of this recent high to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 95.00 and then towards 95.50.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3465

As indicated in our previous update that the rebound from 1.3282 formed a potential morning star pattern on the 4-hour chart which suggest further consolidation above 1.3267-82 support area would take place and recovery to 1.3429 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.3473 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3591-1.3282) and bring another decline later. A break below 1.3267-82 would confirm recent fall has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3246 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) and then towards 1.3200 but loss of momentum would limit downside to 1.3150 and 1.3100/10 (approx. 61.8% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3306; (P) 1.3336 (R1) 1.3389; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, fall from 1.3590 has possibly completed at 1.3282 already. Rise from 1.3282 is possibly developing into the third wave consolidation that started at 1.3266. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for 1.3590 resistance and possibly further towards 1.3817. On the downside, though, below 1.3282 will put focus back to 1.3266 and decisive break there will confirm that medium term fall from 1.5143 has resumed.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 66.41 66.00 +41 +0.62%
EURJPY 125.43 124.74 +69 +0.55%
CHFJPY 87.48 87.01 +47 +0.54%
GBPJPY 143.39 142.63 +76 +0.53%
CADJPY 93.60 93.15 +45 +0.48%

Last Updated: Apr 09, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 09, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 USD Fed Bernanke speaks -- --
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 11.4B 8.0B
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Mar 1.20% 0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Mar 7.10% 6.90%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Mar 0.40% 0.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Mar 4.40% 4.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar 3.10% 2.90%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Mar 25.0K 20.9K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Mar 8.20% 8.20%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.40% -0.20%
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