Thursday, April 29, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-29-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Extends Recovery against Dollar on Greek Optimism

Euro's recovery against dollar extends today on hope that the rescue package for Greece will be finalized soon. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the European Union should complete talks "within days" while Germany opposition party also expressed that it will move quickly to approval funds for German participation. Euro is also supported by better than expected job market and confidence data. Nevertheless, the momentum of Euro is so far weak as there is no detail about the negotiation yet.

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Special Reports

RBNZ Pledges To Remove Stimulus In Coming Months

The RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% but expected to 'begin removing policy stimulus over the coming months, provided the economy continues to evolve as projected'. This is inline with our expectations that the central bank should replace the 'middle of 2010' guidance with a conditional statement to pave the way for a first rate hike in June. Given the robust economic development since the last meeting, the RBNZ also turned more optimistic on the growth outlook.

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FOMC's Statement Contains Few Surprises: Mild Upgrades On Outlook, No Change In Monetary Stance

The FOMC made few changes at April's meeting. While mildly adjusting assessment on economic outlook, especially on housing and employment, the Fed maintained the policy rate at 0-0.25% and reiterated the exceptionally low rate policy will be kept for an extended period. Concerning inflation, the stance was exactly the same as the prior meeting.

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Greek Bonds Become Junk. What Are The Concerns?

S&P cut its credit rating for Greek government bonds by 3 notches, from BBB+ to BB+, to junk after assessing the political, economic and budgetary challenges the country is facing. The agency assigned a recovery rating of '4' to Greece's debt issues, indicating bondholders may recover on average 30-50% of their initial investments in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default. Outlook remains 'negative' and further downgrade is likely if the government's ability to implement its fiscal and structural reform program turns out to be 'materially' weaker that what is currently estimated.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Exit Short Entered At 0.9270

As aussie staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.9135 earlier this week, suggesting the 2nd c leg of wave (ii) has possibly ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, although gain towards 0.9339 (x leg top) cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to confirm correction is over and bring resumption of upmove in wave (iii) for retest of 0.9389.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 124.70 And Sell At 125.80

Although the single currency retreated sharply yesterday from 124.92 (we entered short at 124.70 here) to 123.25, as renewed buying interest emerged there and staged a strong rebound, suggesting upside risk is for stronger rebound towards 125.50 and possibly 125.80 but price should falter below resistance at 126.30 and bring another decline later. Below said support at 123.25 would suggest the 2nd c leg is under way for retest of 122.37 first.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3133; (P) 1.3200 (R1) 1.3285; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3114 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise cannot be ruled out but we'd expect upside to be limited below 1.3417 resistance and bring fall resumption. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3113 will target 100% projection at 1.2682 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 93.70 93.12 +58 +0.62%
USDCAD 1.0038 1.0094 -56 -0.56%
EURCAD 1.3275 1.3343 -68 -0.51%
GBPJPY 143.53 142.97 +56 +0.39%
AUDJPY 87.25 86.92 +33 +0.38%

Last Updated: Apr 29, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 29, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 567M 375M 321M 335M
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Feb -0.30% -- -0.20%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Apr -68K -10K -31K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Apr 7.80% 8.00% 8.00%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar -0.10% -0.10% -0.40% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 100.6 99.4 97.7 97.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F -15 -15 -15
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr -7 -8 -10
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr 5 3 1
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 448K 442K 456K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 70B 73B
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