Thursday, April 8, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-8-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Mid-Day Report: Euro Soft on Greece, Yen Extends Rebound

Euro is generally soft today as markets remain concerned with Greece situation. Greek 10-year spread to German bund widened to 436bps, widest level since Euro's inception. ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected and it's believed that the uncertainty around Greece ties ECB up for existing stimulus measures . Sterling is steady against dollar after BOE left rates unchanged at record low of 0.5% and held the asset purchase problem unchanged at GBP 200b. Japanese yen continue to be the better performer today as global stock markets are mostly in red.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9145

As aussie has retreated rising marginally to 0.9299 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would take place and retracement to 0.9185 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9001 to 0.9299) would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9140-50 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend gain to key resistance at 0.9331, break there would confirm upmove has resumed and extend towards next chart point at 0.9407.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Stand Aside

The retreat from 127.95 turned out to be stronger than expected and weakness to 123.00 cannot be ruled out, however, downside should be limited to 122.79 (1.236 times projection of 127.95 to 125.22 measuring from 126.16) but reckon 121.74 (1.618 times projection) would limit downside and as long as support at 121.05 (wave ii trough) holds, prospect of another rally in wave iii remains.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0697; (P) 1.0720; (R1) 1.0762; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment and further rally is still expected to have a retest on 1.0897 resistance. As noted before, the three wave corrective structure of the fall from 1.0897 to 1.0434 suggests that rise from 0.9916 is not over yet. Break of 1.0897 will confirm rally resumption and should target 1.1158 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0667 will indicate that a temporary top is in place and turn intraday bias neutral. But pull back should be contained well above 1.0434 support and bring another rise.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 65.43 65.96 -53 -0.81%
CADJPY 92.14 92.74 -60 -0.65%
GBPJPY 141.31 142.22 -91 -0.64%
EURJPY 123.89 124.55 -66 -0.53%
CHFJPY 86.48 86.92 -44 -0.51%

Last Updated: Apr 08, 13:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 08, 13:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Feb 1.12T 1.25T 1.71T
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Feb -5.40% 3.70% -3.70%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Feb -7.10% 2.10% -1.10%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Mar 19.6K 20.1K 0.4K -4.7K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Mar 5.30% 5.30% 5.30%
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Mar 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Mar P 262.10% -- 217.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Feb 1.00% 0.50% -0.40% -0.50%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Feb -0.10% -0.50% -1.50% -1.60%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Feb 1.30% 0.60% -0.90% -1.00%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb 1.40% 0.80% 0.20% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.60% 0.00% -0.30% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Feb -1.10% -0.40% -1.30% -0.60%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.00% 1.00% 0.60% 0.10%
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 460K 433K 439K
12:30 USD Fed's Duke Speaks -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 29B 12B
14:30 USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks -- --
18:45 USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks -- --
20:00 USD Fed's Kohn Speaks -- --
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Mar -- 0.30%
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