Thursday, April 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-22-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Sharply Lower as Greece Budget Deficit Revised Up

Euro ignored solid PMI readings and weaken across the board as data showed Greece's budget deficit in 2009 was worse than forecast. Eurostat said today that Greece's budget deficit was at 13.6 of GDP last year, up from prior estimate of 12.9% and nearly doubled the figure of 2008. Total government debt was at 115.1% of GDP. More importantly, Eurostat warned that the figures may actually be even worse on uncertainties over figures related to social security funds and the recording of complex financial swap arrangements. The data raised the prospect that Greece will activate the rescue plan from EU/IMF.

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Special Reports

UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9225

As aussie has retreated after rising to 0.9339 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would take place, however, as c leg of wave (ii) has ended at 0.9157, reckon 0.9200 would contain downside and bring another rally later. Above 0.9365 would bring retest of wave (i) top at 0.9389, break there would confirm wave (iii) has resumed and extend gain towards 0.9407 and later 0.9450.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit Long Entered At 124.50

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 125.18, lack of follow through buying and current retreat suggest further consolidation would be seen and weakness to 123.70/80 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 123.15 (this week's low) would hold and bring another rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3348; (P) 1.3398 (R1) 1.3437; More.

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3300 so far in early US session and further decline is expected to 1.3266 low. As discussed before, correction from 1.3266 might have completed with three waves up to 1.3691 already. Decisive break of 1.3266 will confirm medium term fall resumption to 1.3 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.3420 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 1.3691 will indicate that correction from 1.3266 is still in progress for 1.3817 before completion.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURJPY 123.54 124.76 -122 -0.99%
CHFJPY 86.21 87.03 -82 -0.95%
AUDJPY 85.75 86.35 -60 -0.70%
EURUSD 1.3297 1.3388 -91 -0.68%
GBPJPY 142.60 143.57 -97 -0.68%

Last Updated: Apr 22, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 22, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Mar 0.67T 0.66T 0.47T
06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Mar 2.01B 1.79B 1.29B
07:30 EUR German PMI Services Apr A 55 55.2 54.9
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Apr A 61.3 60.1 60.2
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr A 55.5 54.4 54.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Apr A 57.5 56.7 56.6
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar 23.5B 24.1B 12.4B
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.40% 0.70% 2.10% 2.50%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 2.20% 2.30% 3.50% 3.20%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Mar P 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Mar P 3.50% -- 3.90%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr 53.4 -- 53.8
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Apr -36 -32 -37
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Mar 1.00% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Mar 0.70% 0.50% -0.60%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Mar 6% 6.10% 4.40%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Mar 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 456K 450K 484K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Mar 5.35M 5.30M 5.02M
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Feb -0.20% -0.10% -0.60%
14:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 77B 87B
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