Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-20-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Canadian Dollar Rises Sharply on Bet for June Hike after Hawkish BoC Statement

Canadian dollar rises sharply in early US session as Bank of Canada dropped the conditional commitment to keep rates unchanged till end of Q2 and left rates unchanged at 0.25%. In the accompanying statement, the bank said that with recent improvements in economic outlook, the need for extraordinary policy is "passing" and it's appropriate to "lessen the degree" of monetary stimulus. The bank said that profile for economic growth in Canada is "front-loaded" than that presented in the January MPR and it's expected to grow by 3.7% in 2010 before slowing to 3.1% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2012. Core inflation was firmed that January's projection and is expected to remain near 2% through the rest of the year. Headline CPI would be slightly higher than 2% before returning to target in Q2 of 2011. Canadian dollar surges across the board as markets believe BoC is now setting the stage for rate hike in as early As June.

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Special Reports

UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.50

Despite yesterday's selloff to 123.15, the subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound suggests c leg as well as wave ii from 127.95 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 126.10/15 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.95 to 123.15) but above 126.65/70 is needed to retain bullishness for further gain towards resistance at 127.69 (b leg top), then retest of 127.95.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9225

Despite yesterday's selloff to 0.9157, the strong rebound from there has revived our bullish view that c leg of wave (ii) has ended there and upside bias is seen for a retest of resistance at 0.9389, break there would confirm wave (iii) has resumed and extend gain towards 0.9407 and later 0.9450.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0112; (P) 1.0164; (R1) 1.0193; More.

USD/CAD's sharp fall today sent the pair through 1.0100 minor support decisively and argues that correction from 0.9952 might be completed at 1.0214 already. Nevertheless, as USD/CAD is still held above 0.9952 low, we'll stay neutral for the moment. Break of 0.9952 will indicate that medium term down trend has resumed and should target 0.9823 support next. On the upside, above 1.0100 will bring more sideway consolidations first.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 93.13 91.08 +205 +2.20%
AUDJPY 86.76 85.34 +142 +1.64%
EURCAD 1.3468 1.3678 -210 -1.56%
USDCAD 0.9997 1.0142 -145 -1.45%
GBPCAD 1.5363 1.5555 -192 -1.25%

Last Updated: Apr 20, 13:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 20, 13:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
MT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.40% 0.60% -0.20%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q1 2.00% 2.30% 2.00%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb -0.20% -1.00% 2.90% 2.50%
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes -- --
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Mar 0.70% 0.50% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Mar -1.50% -1.80% -2.90%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb -3.9B -5.3B -8.1B
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Mar 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Mar 3.40% 3.10% 3.00%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Mar 3.00% 2.80% 2.90%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Mar 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Mar 4.40% 4.10% 3.70%
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr 53 45.2 44.5
09:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Apr -39.2 -48 -51.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr 46 38.9 37.9
13:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
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