Thursday, April 15, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-15-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Tumbles on Never-ending Greece Concerns

Euro is sharply lower today as focus turned back to Greece again. There are fresh concern that the Eurozone aid package is against the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty which created the European Union and led to the creation Euro in the 90s. Economists claim that the treaty contains a clause preventing EU states from taking on the debt obligations of their neighbors. Joachim Starbatty, a leading economist and professor at Tuebingen University, said a suit might be filed at the Constitutional Court against the credit from euro states. Markets worry that Greece might in the end be not able to get the EUR 30b rescue from Eurozone members. The Greek 10 year bonds German bunds spread rose above 400bps again for the first time since the bailout package was announced over the weekend.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Stand Aside

Despite yesterday's rise to 127.69, failure to extend further gain beyond there and the subsequent stronger-than-expected retreat partly due to comments from George Soros suggests recent upmove is not ready to resume yet and further choppy trading below 127.95 (wave i top) would take place, bring retracement to 125.06 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 123.43 to 127.69) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 124.00 would hold and price should stay above support at 123.43, bring another rebound later this week.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9170

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 0.9365 (yesterday's high was 0.9361), as aussie has retreated in tandem with euro, suggesting further consolidation below resistance at 0.9389 (wave (i) top) would be seen and we are keeping our view that only a leg of wave (ii) has ended at 0.9223 and another fall in c leg of wave (ii) may bring weakness to 0.9195 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave (i) from 0.9001) but 0.9149 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold, bring another rally later. Above said resistance at 0.9389 would signal upmove has resumed in wave (iii) for retest of chart resistance at 0.9407, then 0.9450.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3605; (P) 1.3642 (R1) 1.3689; More.

EUR/USD drops sharply today and touches 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Nevertheless, note that rise from 1.3282 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.3490 minor support holds. Current price actions from 1.3691 are treated as pull back only. Break of 1.3691 will target 1.3817 or above to complete the rebound from 1.3266. However, note that break of 1.3490 support will suggest that rise from 1.3282 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3266/3282 support zone.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.3558 1.3653 -95 -0.70%
EURJPY 126.42 127.28 -86 -0.68%
EURCAD 1.3540 1.3631 -91 -0.67%
USDCHF 1.0582 1.0517 +65 +0.61%
CHFJPY 88.10 88.61 -51 -0.58%

Last Updated: Apr 15, 13:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 15, 13:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index Mar 56.3 -- 53.3 53.6
23:00 USD Fed Sack Speaks -- --
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Mar 72 81 80 81
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr 4.10% -- 3.20%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb F -0.90% -0.90%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb F 31.30% 31.30%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report -- --
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Apr 24 22.86
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 440K 460K
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb 39.2B 19.1B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Mar 0.70% 0.10%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 73.30% 72.70%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Apr 20 18.9
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 81B 31B
14:30 USD Fed Lacker Speaks -- --
16:15 USD Fed Bullard -- --
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 16 15
17:40 USD Fed Lockhart Speaks -- --
19:00 USD Former Fed Chairman Volcker Speaks -- --
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