| Action Insight Daily Report | Daily Report: Euro Recovers Mildly as ECB, IMF Meets Germany, But Remains Vulnerable Euro recovers mildly after having the largest fall against dollar in a year yesterday. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn will brief German parliament in Berlin today and markets are hoping for some positive news from there. Also, there are speculations that IMF will increase its share of financial aid by EUR 10b from the current EUR 15b to EUR 25b. However, the overall market sentiments are still favoring dollar and yen for the moment. S&P's downgrade of Greek government bonds to junk and rating cut of Portugal triggered wave of risk aversion flow and sent DOW down as much as -1.9% and closed below 11000 level while S&P dropped -2.34%. Nikkei followed by falling -2.57% today and remained weak throughout the trading session. Dollar index managed to risk on wave of flight-to-safety fund flow and broke recent high of 82.24 while Gold also jumped to above 1170 level. Full Report Here... | | Special Reports | Greek Bonds Become Junk. What Are The Concerns? S&P cut its credit rating for Greek government bonds by 3 notches, from BBB+ to BB+, to junk after assessing the political, economic and budgetary challenges the country is facing. The agency assigned a recovery rating of '4' to Greece's debt issues, indicating bondholders may recover on average 30-50% of their initial investments in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default. Outlook remains 'negative' and further downgrade is likely if the government's ability to implement its fiscal and structural reform program turns out to be 'materially' weaker that what is currently estimated. Full Report Here... Fed to Upgrade Economic Assessment and Keep 'Exceptionally Low Rate', 'Extended Period' Language Regarding the FOMC meeting in April, the market has debated about retention of the 'extended period' language in the policy statement. While economic data have shown solid improvement in various aspects, the Fed will continue to keep its Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on April 28 and we do not see the Fed will remove the language for the time being. Rather, policymakers will revise up economic assessment despite warning employment situation. Full Report Here... RBNZ to Leave Rates Unchanged at 2.5%, May Change the 'Middle of 2010' Statement Similar to the consensus, we expect the RBNZ will keep the OCR at 2.5% at the meeting on April 29. Therefore, focus of the meeting is on the central bank's economic outlook as well as its implications on monetary stance. The RBNZ has guided in the post-meeting statement that it would 'begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010' since April 2009 with brief modification in December. As we approaches 'the middle of 2010', we are interested to see if the central bank will make any change to the sentence. In our opinion, the RBNZ will change it to a conditional statement, saying a rate hike in coming months depending on economic data and inflation outlook. Full Report Here... | | Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis | Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0805 Although intra-day breach of resistance at 1.0899 confirms early upmove from 2009 low of 0.9910 has resumed, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from 1.0900 suggest minor consolidation would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0800) and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend gain to 1.0930 (50% projection of 0.9910 to 1.0899 measuring from 1.0435), then towards 1.0970/80, however, reckon resistance at 1.1026 would remain intact. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3310 The single currency tumbled after S&P downgraded credit ratings of both Greece and Portugal (Greece's sovereign credit ratings were cut to junk status) and price broke below support at 1.3201 to as low as 1.3144 before recovering. Although initial consolidation is expected and recovery to the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3280-84) cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interest should emerge below 1.3313 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3417 to 1.3144) and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend downtrend towards 1.3110-14 (61.8% projection of 1.4580-1.3433 measuring from 1.3819 and 61.8% projection of 1.3692-1.3201 measuring from 1.3417) but price should stay well above 1.3036 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3267 measuring from 1.3692). Full Report Here... | | Featured Technical Report | Market Highlights | EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.62; (P) 123.79; (R1) 125.03; More. EUR/JPY's strong break of 123.14 support and the near term trend line indicates that recent choppy rise from 119.64 is merely a correction in the larger down trend and has possibly completed at 127.88 already. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 100% projection of 127.65 to 123.14 from 126.28 at 121.77 first. Decisive break there will affirm this bearish case and target a retest on 119.64 low. On the upside, above 123.76 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But we'd stay cautiously bearish as long as 126.28 resistance holds. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Daily Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | GBPAUD | 1.6531 | 1.6670 | -139 | -0.84% | | AUDUSD | 0.9205 | 0.9153 | +52 | +0.56% | | AUDJPY | 85.80 | 85.33 | +47 | +0.55% | | NZDJPY | 66.62 | 66.27 | +35 | +0.53% | | NZDUSD | 0.7147 | 0.7111 | +36 | +0.50% | Last Updated: Apr 28, 07:10 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | Last Updated: Apr 28, 07:10 GMT | | Economic Indicators Update | | GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Mar | 4.70% | 3.60% | 4.20% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.50% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q1 | 2.90% | 2.80% | 2.10% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 | 0.80% | 0.60% | 0.60% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 | 3.00% | 2.90% | 3.20% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.70% | | | 1:30 | AUD | CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 | 3.10% | 3.00% | 3.60% | | | 3:00 | NZD | NBNZ Business Confidence Apr | 49.5 | -- | 42.5 | | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | | 0.9M | 1.9M | | | 18:15 | USD | FOMC Interest Rate Decision | | 0.25% | 0.25% | | | 21:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | | 2.50% | 2.50% | | | -- | EUR | German CPI M/M Apr P | | 0.20% | 0.50% | | | -- | EUR | German CPI Y/Y Apr P | | 1.20% | 1.10% | | | | Suggested Readings | Fundamental Highlights Technical Highlights | | | Forex Brokers | | | Sponsors | 
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