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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounds Further ahead of FOMC, More Upside?Dollar rebound further today together with falling Asian stocks. Trade data from China showed slowing growth in imports and exports which raised concern that the Chinese economy will slow more than expected. In addition, traders are paring bet on the odds that Fed will re-start the quantitative easing campaign at today's meeting. Dollar index is pressing 81 level and 4 hours 55 EMA, which suggests that a short term bottom is possibly formed at 80.08, right ahead of 80 psychological level. There are also signs of short term reversal in EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5855; (P) 1.5925; (R1) 1.5959; More. GBP/USD's break of 1.5819 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed at 1.5997 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968. Intraday bias is flipped to the downside and deeper decline should now be seen towards near term rising trend line (now at 1.5456). Decisive break there will be an important indication of reversal and will turn focus to 1.5123 cluster support. On the upside, sustained trading above 1.5968 fibo level will indicate that recent rise from 1.4230 is still in progress for 1.7043 resistance before completion. |
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| Special Reports |
FED Unlikely to Announce QE Plans in AugustFocus of the upcoming FOMC meeting is whether the Fed announces to enter the next phase of QE, i.e. to purchase assets to maintain or expand the size of the balance sheet. Although recent US economic indicators have surprised to the downside and speculations of QE intensified after Friday's payroll report, we do not expect the Fed to announce anything new other than a more dovish statement at Tuesday's meeting. Read more... |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0470Yesterday's rally signals recent decline has indeed formed a temporary low at 1.0332 and consolidation with upside bias is seen and break of resistance at 1.0555 would bring retracement to 1.0600/05 and later towards next resistance at 1.0640, however, overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk has increased for a retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3220Yesterday's selloff after breaking below the Ichimoku cloud signals top has been formed at 1.3334 last week and although price has recovered from 1.3135 and bounce to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3183) is likely, reckon 1.3222-26 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud bottom) would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later to 1.3115-19 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2980 to 1.3334 and previous support), however, reckon 1.3050/60 would hold. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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