Thursday, August 5, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-5-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Stay in Range, ECB and BoE on Hold

Markets continue to stay in familiar range after ECB and BoE left rates unchanged while US jobless came miss expectations. ECB left rates unchanged at 1% for the 16th consecutive month as widely expected. President Trichet said in the press conference that current raters are "appropriate" and expects "price developments to remain moderate". Economic data in Q3 were so far "better than expected" but Trichet warned again that recovery will be "moderate and uneven". After all, there is no change in markets' expectation that ECB is in no rush to remove policy accommodation any time soon.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5838; (P) 1.5900; (R1) 1.5945; More.

GBP/USD is still staying in consolidation below 1.5967 for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5704) and below. But still, recent rally should still be in progress as long as 1.5546 cluster support holds (which is close to 50% retracement of 1.5123 to 1.5967 and 23.6% retracement from 1.4230 to 1.5967). Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 will pave the way to retest 1.7043 resistance next.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 -0.30% 0.50% 1.00%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 3.20% 1.50% -0.50% -0.10%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claim 479K 456K 457K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 6.50% 0.60% -10.80%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B 28B
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9220

Although aussie has eased after rising to 0.9184 yesterday, as long as 0.9070 holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain to 0.9185/90 (100% projection of 0.8315 to 0.8871 measuring from 0.8633 and 1.618 times projection of 0.8908-0.9044 measuring from 0.8965), however, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 0.9220/30 and reckon 0.9290/00 would hold, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5855

Cable's intra-day rebound from 1.5820 suggests the correction from 1.5968 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, however, break of said resistance at 1.5968 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to psychological resistance at 1.6000, possibly towards 1.6050.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.70

The greenback has remained sidelined in line with our expectation and further consolidation would take place, although test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 85.92) is likely, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 85.57) should contain downside and bring another leg of corrective upmove later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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