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Daily Report: Yen Mildly Lower on Intervention talk, Dollar ConsolidatesThe Japanese yen weakens mildly in an otherwise quite market today on intervention talk. Japan Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda reiterated today that "Excessive foreign exchange moves can adversely affect the economy and monetary conditions" and said he will "closely monitor" the developments. This followed his comments last week that the move in USD/JPY was "a little one-sided". Nevertheless there were no words like "ready to take decisive action", which hinted actual intervention. After all, there is no change in the bearish outlook in USD/JPY and we'd expect more downside ahead. Meanwhile, data from Japan saw current account surplus widened less than expected to JPY 1.36T in June. Eco watchers survey current index improved to 49.8 in July. |
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AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9136; (P) 0.9179; (R1) 0.9222; More As noted before, AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum as shown in the mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, with 0.9067 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor. Current rebound from 0.8066 is still expected to continue towards .9380/9404 resistance zone. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.9067 will suggest that AUD/USD has made a short term top already and turn focus to 0.8904 support for confirmation. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0450As the greenback has rebounded after Friday's selloff to 1.0332, suggesting a minor low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0421, just above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0555 to 1.0332 at 1.0417), however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0467) should cap upside, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5925As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.6025/30 (50% projection of 1.5553 to 1.5968 measuring from 1.5820) would be seen, above would extend towards 1.6075/80 (61.8% projection), however, reckon 1.6100 would hold from here due to near term overbought condition. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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