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Mid-Day Report: Yen Crosses Dive as Risk Aversion Dominates, USD/JPY Breaks 15 Year LowYen extends rally on risk aversion as global stocks tumble on concern of slow down in economic recovery. The sharp -2.7% fall in Nikkei, which was triggered by disappointing data from China, was followed by broad based weakness in European stocks. Major European indices are down over -1.5% so far and US stocks futures are pointing to lower open. Sterling is additionally pressured as BOE revised down GDP and CPI forecasts in its Quarterly Inflation Report. USD/JPY breached 2009 low of 84.81 and reached as low as 84.81 but the greenback is helped by risk aversion and is firm against other major currencies. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 85.00; (P) 85.62; (R1) 86.05; More. USD/JPY dives to as low as 84.71 today and the break of 84.81 low confirms long term down trend resumption. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should now be seen towards 80 psychological level. On the upside, above 85.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 86.22 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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BOE Revises Down GDP And CPI ForecastsAs unveiled in the quarterly inflation report, the BOE revised down its forecasts on economic growth and inflation, reflecting the softening in business and consumer confidence, the faster pace of fiscal consolidation and a slower improvement in credit conditions. Fed Sparks Unconventional Measures By Reinvesting MBS ProceedsThe Fed announced to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-dated Treasuries as the 'pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near-term than had been anticipated'. This is the first step for the central bank to adopt unconventional monetary policies in more than a year and signaled policymakers' commitment to keep interest rates low and bolster the economy. Initial reaction appeared to be positive with Treasury prices rallying further. The market obviously expects further easing to come. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 112.30The single currency tumbled after breaking indicated support at 112.57, suggesting the correction from 107.30 has possibly ended at 114.74 earlier and consolidation with downside bias is seen and as price has dropped below 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 107.30 to 114.74), further weakness to 110.70/80 is likely, however, break of key support at 110.02 is needed to confirm the entire correction from 107.30 is over. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3100Despite intra-day selloff to 1.2989, as the single currency has recovered after holding above previous support at 1.2980, suggesting consolidation would be seen and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3056) would bring retracement to the 1.3074 (previous support) but renewed selling interest should emerge below the Kijun-Sen and bring another decline. Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0450Current retreat suggests near term downside risk is for a test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.0496) and possibly towards support at 1.0461, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0443) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rise later. Above intra-day resistance at 1.0567 would signal the pullback from 1.0618 has ended and bring retest of this level | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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