Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-17-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Higher on Solid Bond Auctions

Euro rebound strongly against Sterling and Swissy on the back of solid bond sales. Ireland sold its 2014 and 2010 bonds at bid-to-cover ratios above 3 times with yield on the 10 year paper also lower comparing to last month's tender. Spain sold EUR 5.15b of 12- and 18-month T-bills, slightly exceed target of EUR 5.5b. The solid results eased recent concern on Eurozone funding markets.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2749; (P) 1.2809 (R1) 1.2887; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.2733 extends further today and further recovery could still be seen. Nevertheless, upside should be limited limited well below 1.3330 resistance and bring another fall. As noted before, break of 1.2731 support will indicate that whole rebound rom 1.1875 is completed and will bring deeper decline to 1.2466 support next.

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RBA Comfortable With Rates

The RBA's minutes for the August meeting reinforced our view that the policy rate will remain unchanged in the near-term. Policymakers stated that 'developments over the latest month had not materially changed the Board's assessment' and they were 'comfortable with the existing level of interest rates, particularly in an environment where there was a significant degree of market volatility.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes -- --
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jun -4.6B -3.7B -5.8B
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul -0.20% -0.20% 0.10%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 3.10% 3.10% 3.20%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 2.60% 3.00% 3.10%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul -0.20% 0.00% 0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 4.80% 5.00% 5.00%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Aug 14 20.6 21.2
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Aug 44.3 24 14.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Aug 15.8 10.6 10.7
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun 5.39B 10.32B 23.16B
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun 0.10% -0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Jul 546K 560K 549K 537K
12:30 USD Building Permits Jul 565K 576K 583K
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20% -0.50%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul 4.20% 4.20% 2.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 1.50% 1.30% 1.10%
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 1.00% 0.50% 0.10%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 74.80% 74.50% 74.10%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Look to sell higher

The greenback has continued to trade narrowly and despite intra-day bounce to 1.0448, above 1.0465-68 (previous support and the current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) is needed to signal fall from 1.0630 has ended, bring retracement of this move to 1.0500/05, however, reckon resistance at 1.0555 would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 85.65

Despite intra-day brief breach of the Kijun-Sen, as dollar has retreated from 85.54, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains and weakness to 85.11 and possibly 84.94 is likely, however, break of latter support is needed to signal early decline has resumed for retest of recent low at 84.72, break there would extend fall towards 84.25/30 (61.8% projection of 88.12 to 84.72 measuring from 86.39) but reckon 84.00 would hold from here.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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