Monday, August 2, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Sharply Lower as Sentiments Boosted by PMI Data and Corporate Earnings

Market sentiments are generally boosted by solid PMI data and corporate earnings today. US ISM manufacturing dropped slightly to 55.5 in July but was better than consensus of 54.2. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped just mildly from 57.6 to 57.3 in July, above expectation of 57.1. The data suggests that UK manufacturing sector is still in solid expansion which supports momentum for growth in Q3 and H2. Eurozone PMI manufacturing was revised slightly up from 56.5 to 56.7. Swiss SVME PMI also beat expectation and rose to record high of 66.9, suggesting strong recovery onwards. Overall sentiments are additionally lifted by solid earnings from HSBC and BNP Paribas. DOW is up over 1.5% in early trading while FTSE 100 is up over 2%. Dollar is broadly pressured with EUR/USD breaks 1.31 level and GBP/USD breaks 1.58.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5583; (P) 1.5652; (R1) 1.5752; More.

GBP/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.5881 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise is expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 next. Break will then target 1.7043 resistance. On the downside, below 1.5722 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.5123 support and bring another rise.

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Special Reports

Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE

The RBA will very likely leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% in August. Inflation in Australia undershot market expectations in 2Q10 with the headline CPI rose +0.6% q/q, compared with a +0.9% increase in the prior quarter. On annual basis, the reading rose +3.1% in 2Q10, up from +2.9% y/y in 1Q10. The results were much weaker than market expectations of a +1% q/q and +3.4% y/y rise. The RBA's weighted median and trimmed mean both recorded slightly slower increases of +0.5% q/q. Disappointment in inflation may slow the central bank's pace of tightening. While we retain our current view that RBA will pause in the third quarter before hiking interest rates again by +25 bps in the fourth quarter, a pause for the full second half in 2010 cannot be ruled out, depending on economic development both in Australia and overseas.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jul 0.10% -- 0.30%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales Y/Y Jun 4.10% 3.80%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Jul 64.8 65.7
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jul F 56.5 56.5
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Jul 57.1 57.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jul 54.3 56.2
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jul 55.3 57
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jun -0.40% -0.20%
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0200

The greenback finally broke below last week's low at 1.0256 and although the decline from 1.0678 may extend weakness to 1.0190/00, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon key support at 1.0138 would contain downside and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9185

Although aussie has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 0.9069 and recent rise may extend gain towards 0.9185/90 (100% projection of 0.8315 to 0.8871 measuring from 0.8633 and 1.618 times projection of 0.8908-0.9044 measuring from 0.8965) would limit upside and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered 1.3020

Although the single currency has traded narrowly partly due to cross-trading against the pound, as long as intra-day minor support at 1.3054 holds, bullishness remains for upmove to resume after consolidation and break of resistance at 1.3107 would confirm and extend gain to 1.3140/50 but reckon 1.3170/75 (1.618 times projection of 1.2732 to 1.2966 measuring from 1.2794 as well as 50% projection of 1.2151 to 1.3029 measuring from 1.2732) would limit upside.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 87.15

Although the greenback has retreated after intra-day rise to 86.89, below minor support at 86.15/20 is needed to signal the rebound from 85.95 has ended there and bring resumption of recent decline for retest of this support, then towards 85.45/50 (61.8% projection of 92.89 to 86.96 measuring from 89.15), otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 87.14) cannot be ruled out.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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