Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-18-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Lower ahead of BoE Minutes, Yen Steady

Sterling was the only major currency that failed to participate in this week's risk rally so far. And indeed, the pound has weakened quite noticeably against dollar, euro and swissy. Euro's rebound on bond auctions was one of the major factors. But sterling's weakness could also be attributed to the inflation readings that clearly showed a declining trend even thought he headline inflation stayed above BoE's target range of 2-3%. In particular, core CPI has indeed dropped sharply from 3.1% to 2.6%. BoE minutes to be released today will be the main even risk to determine whether sterling would continue this week's weakness. Andrew Sentance was the only member that voted for rate hikes on inflation outlook in prior meetings. Sterling would possibly face more selling pressure should the minutes reveal a change, or softening in Sentance's stance.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5526; (P) 1.5610; (R1) 1.5670; More.

GBP/USD's fall from 1.5997 resumed after brief recovery was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.5123 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4230 to 1.5997 at 1.5114). Also, note that the sustained trading below near term rising trend line suggests that whole rally from 1.4230 is completed too after failing 1.6 psychological level. Decisive break of 1.5123 will confirm this case and target a retest on 1.4230. On the upside, above 1.5701 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for some recovery. But after all, risk will continue to remain on the downside as long as 1.5997 resistance holds.

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RBA Comfortable With Rates

The RBA's minutes for the August meeting reinforced our view that the policy rate will remain unchanged in the near-term. Policymakers stated that 'developments over the latest month had not materially changed the Board's assessment' and they were 'comfortable with the existing level of interest rates, particularly in an environment where there was a significant degree of market volatility.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jun 0.00% -- 0.20% 0.30%
1:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q2 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes 1--0--8 1--0--7
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.1M -3.0M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0555

As the greenback has edged higher from 1.0350, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and above 1.0465(previous support) to signal fall from 1.0630 has ended at 1.0350 and bring retracement of this move to 1.0500/05 and possibly towards resistance at 1.0555, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 85.95

Dollar's recovery after yesterday's fall to 85.11 suggests further consolidation would take place and although near tern upside risk remains for gain towards 85.90-96 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 86.39 to 85.11 and previous resistance), reckon resistance at 86.39-46 would hold and bring further choppy trading and subsequent retreat would be seen later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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