Monday, August 2, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-2-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: GBP/USD and AUD/USD Extend Rally, Manufacturing Data in Focus

Commodity currencies are broadly higher today, along with Sterling, riding on broad based rally in Asian stocks. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI dropped below 50 neutral level to 49.4 in July, showing mild contraction. The data triggered hopes that China authorities will refrain from any implementing any new tightening measures and lifted sentiments in general. Rallies in AUD/USD and GBP/USD are impressive as both pair has taken out July's high already. However, Euro continues to lag behind as upside remains limited below 1.31 level.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8984; (P) 0.9024; (R1) 0.9084; More

AUD/USD's rally extends further to as high as 0.9105 so far today and and break of 0.9068 indicates that recent rally has resumed. Intraday bias is now on the upside for further rise towards 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, below 0.9019 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8905 support will argue that AUD/USD might have topped out already and will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8315 support.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jul 0.10% -- 0.30%
7:15 CHF Retail Sales Y/Y Jun 4.10% 3.80%
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Jul 64.8 65.7
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jul F 56.5 56.5
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Jul 57.1 57.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jul 54.3 56.2
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jul 55.3 57
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jun -0.40% -0.20%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold long entered 1.3020

Despite Friday's retreat to 1.2980, as the single currency found renewed buying interest there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting the pullback from 1.3107 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend towards 1.3145/50 but reckon 1.3170/75 (1.618 times projection of 1.2732 to 1.2966 measuring from 1.2794 as well as 50% projection of 1.2151 to 1.3029 measuring from 1.2732) would limit upside.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5600

As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress and further gain to 1.5790/00 is likely, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5820/25 (50% projection of 1.5125 to 1.5663 measuring from 1.5553), however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.5885 (61.8% projection) would limit upside and risk from there has increased for a correction later.

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