Monday, August 23, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-23-10

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Mid-Day Report: Yen Attempting Rally after Poor Eurozone Data

Japanese yen is attempting to rally against other major currencies as Eurozone data showed that recovery pace is slowing. EUR/JPY is clearly weak as it breaks through last week's low of 108.24. But other yen crosses are still holding above last week's low as stocks are resilient so far. Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped more than expected from 56.7 to 55 in August but services PMI was just mildly off from 55.8 to 55.6. Most notably, export growth showed sharp decline which suggests that the Eurozone economy is starting to be dragged down by US.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 85.26; (P) 85.54; (R1) 85.89; More.

USD/JPY dips sharply in early US session but is still staying in range of 84.71/86.36. Some more sideway trading could still be seen. Nevertheless, outlook will remain bearish as long as near term channel resistance holds (now at 86.57). Break of 84.71 will confirm that whole fall from 94.97 has resumed and should target 80 psychological level next. However, break of mentioned channel resistance will indicate that fall from 94.97 is finished and will turn focus to 88.11 resistance for confirmation.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
7:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Aug P 58.2 60.9 61.2
7:30 EUR German PMI Services Aug P 58.5 56.2 56.5
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Aug P 55 56.4 56.7
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Aug P 55.6 55.5 55.8
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug P -13 -14
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0420

Although the greenback retreated to 1.0302, as cross-selling in Swiss franc has lifted price from there, retaining our view indicated in our previous update that, further consolidation would be seen and another corrective rebound to 1.0393 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0644 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0630 to 1.0257) would cap upside, bring another decline.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2800

Despite intra-day retreat from 1.2730 to 1.2682, as the single currency has recovered as suggested in our previous update, further consolidation should take place and above said minor resistance would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2790/00 but reckon 1.2812 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2903 to 1.2664) would cap upside and bring another decline later.

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