Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-6-10

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Tumbles, Yen Rallies after Poor Non-Farm Payroll Yen jumps sharply in early US session following much worse than expected Non-Farm Payroll report. Headline NFP number showed -131k contraction in July versus expectation of -75k. Prior month's figure was also revised sharply down from -125k to -221k. Private payroll rose 71k only, lower than expectation of 80k. Unemployment rate, though was unchanged at 9.5%. After all, the poor job data sent US stocks futures sharply lower and raised the possibility of more quantitative easing from Fed next week. USD/JPY dives through 85.31 low to resume recent down trend while the Japanese yen also strengthen broadly too. Dollar is noticeably weak against Euro but price actions against Sterling and Aussie are muted so far. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 85.52; (P) 85.99; (R1) 86.26; More. USD/JPY's break of 85.31 confirms that recent decline has resumed and further fall should be seen to 84.81 key support level next. On the upside, above 85.72 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But after all, outlook will remain bearish as long as 88.11 resistance holds and we'd expect recent decline to extend further. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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ECB Delivered Upbeat Economic Outlook While ECB maintained the main refinancing rate at 1%, the upbeat economic outlook was encouraging. President Trichet said in the statement that there's 'strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010' while data for the third quarter are 'better than expected'. The central bank continued to view the current key ECB interest rates remain 'appropriate' and 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'. Read more...

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised -- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul -- 0.70% 01:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement -- -- 05:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 98.90% 98.90% 98.60% 98.60% 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.80% 3.90% 3.90% 08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul -0.10% -0.40% -0.20% 08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul 10.80% 11.40% 10.70% 08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% -0.30% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul 5.00% 4.90% 5.10% 08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 4.70% 4.50% 4.80% 5.00% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.50% 0.30% 0.70% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun 1.30% 1.90% 2.60% 2.50% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun 0.30% 0.50% 0.30% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 4.10% 4.10% 4.30% 4.20% 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.60% 0.90% 2.60% 2.90% 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul -9.3K 10.3K 93.2K 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 8.00% 7.90% 7.90% 12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jul -131K -75K -125K -221K 12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 9.50% 9.60% 9.50% 14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jul 56.3 58.9
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3195 Euro's rally on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weaker than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data signals recent upmove would resume and retest of 1.3262 is under way, break there would extend gain to 1.3290/95 (61.8% projection of 1.2980 to 1.3262 measuring from 1.3119), above reckon 1.3355 (100% projection of 1.2732 to 1.3107 measuring from 1.2980) would hold on first testing and bring retreat later. Read more... Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5870 Despite intra-day retreat to 1.5840, as cable has rebounded again on weaker-than-expected U.S. NFP data, current breach of 1.5925 resistance confirms the correction from 1.5968 has ended at 1.5820 and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of resistance at 1.5968 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed for gain to psychological resistance at 1.6000 and later towards 1.6050, then 1.6075/80 (61.8% projection of 1.5553 to 1.5968 measuring from 1.5820). Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights European Market Update Dollar Should Be Resilient Post Payrolls UK Industrial Production Miss Not A Disaster For GBP Bulls Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day EURUSD - Digesting Recent Gains Forex Technical Update

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