Monday, August 30, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-30-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Reverses after Disappointing BoJ Emergency Meeting

Yen spiked lower as the week starts on anticipation of emergency BoJ meeting but reverses after it failed to deliver something that could curb yen's strength. BoJ did announce additional easing measures to boost Japan's economic recovery after the meeting, introducing a 6-month term in the fixed-rate funds-supplying operation against pooled collateral and substantially increased the amount of funds to be provided through the operation. BOJ will provide of 10 trillion yen of loans for 6 months, in addition to the 20 trillion yen for 3 months announced in March. The program, together with the uncollateralized overnight call rate which has stayed at 0.1%, is expected to encourage a decline in market interest rates and further enhance easy monetary conditions. This is the first unconventional measures that the BOJ adopted in 5 months.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 84.50; (P) 84.97; (R1) 85.68; More.

USD/JPY spiked higher to 85.89 as the week starts but reversed since then. The sharp fall indicates that a temporary top is in place and turns bias neutral. After all, outlook remains unchanged. Price actions from 83.61 should be consolidative only and hence, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 88.25 support turned resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 84.27 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 83.61 will confirm down trend resumption and target 80 psychological level next.

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BOJ Pledged 10 Trillion Yen For 6 Months To Stimulate Recovery

At the emergency held today, the Bank of Japan announced additional easing measures to boost Japan's economic recovery. The BOJ introduced a 6-month term in the fixed-rate funds-supplying operation against pooled collateral and substantially increased the amount of funds to be provided through the operation. This is the first unconventional measures that the BOJ adopted in 5 months.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Jul -186M -40M 276M 214M
3:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Aug 16.4 -- 27.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 101.6 101.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -12 -12
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -4 -4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug 7 6
12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -10.2B -7.8B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul 0.40% -0.90%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul 0.20% -0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul 0.30% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul 1.40% 1.40%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul 1.40% 1.40%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5465

Despite Friday's brief drop to 1.5442, as the British pound has staged a quick rebound from there, suggesting further consolidation above recent temporary low at 1.5373 would be seen with mild upside bias for another bounce towards last week's high of 1.5599 but break there is needed to retain bullishness for retracement of early decline to 1.5620 but reckon resistance at 1.5672 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 85.60

Despite intra-day brief rise to 85.91, failure to penetrate previous resistance at 85.92 and the subsequent sharp retreat from there suggest top has possibly been formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement to 84.47-49 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 83.58 to 85.91), however, as temporary low has been formed at 83.58 last week, reckon minor support at 84.27 would limit downside and 84.05 should hold, bring another rebound later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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