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Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Extends Rebound after Better than Expected GDP RevisionUSD/JPY extends this week's rebound after better than expected Q2 GDP revision from US. GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 1.6% annualized, above consensus of 1.4%. GDP price index was revised up from 1.8% to 1.9%. USD/JPY jumps after the release and breaches 85 level. But no follow through buying is seen in dollar against other currencies yet, not is there follow through selling of yen. Markets are still cautious ahead of Bernanke's speech later in the US morning. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 84.23; (P) 84.55; (R1) 84.78; More. USD/JPY's rebound form 83.61 rebounds further and touches 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen. But after all, note that upside is expected to be limited below 86.36 resistance and bring another fall. Below 84.27 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 83.61 will confirm down trend resumption for next key level at 80 psychological support. However, note that decisive break of 86.36 resistance will argue that USD/JPY has formed a short term bottom at least and bring stronger rise towards 88.11 resistance first. |
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Swiss Franc to Outperform other 'Safe' CurrenciesA comeback of concerns about global economic slowdown has induced strong demand for safe-haven assets. While stocks, commodities and other growth assets got dumped, bond prices rallied, pushing yields to record lows, which currencies that are considered as 'safe' soared. While USD, JPY and CHF are traditionally considered shelters when risk aversion increases given the abundant liquidity and solid economic backdrop in the countries, we expect strength of Swiss franc to continue in the near-term as market confidence remains fragile. It should also outperform USD and JPY as Switzerland has relatively stable fundamentals than the US and Japan. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0345As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting bearishness remains bearish for recent downtrend to extend subsequent weakness towards 1.0186 (100% projection of 1.0630 to 1.0350 measuring from 1.0466) but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.0150 and reckon 1.0100 would hold. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2695Euro's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as indicated minor support at 1.2687-93 (previous minor support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rise later. A break of yesterday's high of 1.2765 would extend near term rise from 1.2588 low for gain to 1.2795-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2923 to 1.2588) but resistance at 1.2833 should hold from here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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