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Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Breaks 86 Again as Treasury Yield DivesUSD/JPY dives through 86 level again today following fall in yield on two-year notes to record low of 0.5301 on speculation that Fed will restart the quantitative easing program next week. Meanwhile, dollar remains under tremendous pressure against Euro and Sterling, where we see EUR/USD breaches 1.32 while GBP/USD reaches 1.596. Nevertheless, strength in commodity currencies is relatively limited with Aussie and Loonie both held below yesterday's low. |
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USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 86.25; (P) 86.56; (R1) 86.81; More. USD/JPY's break of 85.98 indicates that recent fall has resumed and put intraday bias back to the downside. As discussed before, current decline from 94.97 is expected to extend further to retest 84.81 low next. On the upside, above 86.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, break of 88.11 resistance is still needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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RBA Left OCR Unchanged At 4.5%, Taking A Wait-And-See StanceThe RBA left the OCR unchanged at 4.5% for the 3rd consecutive month. Few surprises were seen in the accompanying statement. The overall tone was similar to that of July while the economic outlook was also unchanged. Policymakers acknowledged that global economic expansion, while faster than trend, has been uneven. There are signs that Chinese growth is 'moderating to a more sustainable rate as policies are now less accommodating'. Moreover, positive stress test results also diminished concerns over European banking systems and 'the caution evident in financial markets in the past few months has abated of late'. In July, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'caution in financial markets has been evident in the past couple of months, driven principally by concerns about European sovereigns and banks but also by some uncertainty about the pace of future global growth'. Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOEDespite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'. |
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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.9025 or Sell at 0.9220As the Australian dollar has remained firm, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend to 0.9185/90 (100% projection of 0.8315 to 0.8871 measuring from 0.8633 and 1.618 times projection of 0.8908-0.9044 measuring from 0.8965), however, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 0.9220/30 and bring retreat later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3155Despite intra-day rise to 1.3262, as the single currency has eased from there, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3205 would bring retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3163) but renewed buying interest should emerge above intra-day support at 1.3146 and bring another upmove to 1.3275 (61.8% projection of 1.2151-1.3029 measuring from 1.2732) Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5865Although the British pound has edged higher to 1.5968, as price has eased after faltering below indicated level at 1.5970/75 - 1.618 times projection of 1.4949 to 1.5473 measuring from 1.5125, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5885) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around intra-day support at 1.5862 and bring another rally. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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