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Daily Report: Dollar Retreats Further ahead of Jackson Hole, Yen Weakens as Intervention Talk ContinuesDollar and yen retreat further against other majors currencies as sentiments are generally stable following yesterday's intraday recovery in US equities. Markets are cautious and are possibly lightening up positions on two event risks. Firstly, Fed will hold the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming today where ECB Trichet and BoJ Shirakawa, plus other central bank officials, will attend. Bernanke will deliver a speech on Friday, which will be his first since Fed's QE Lite announcement. Markets are expecting an update on the outlook on the economy plus, though not likely, some hints on what further actions will Fed take down the road to avoid a double-dip recession. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0556; (P) 1.0612; (R1) 1.0650; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 1.0666 in USD/CAD, just ahead of 1.0675 resistance. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and deeper retreat could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0476). But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained well above 1.0246 support and bring another rise. As noted before, decisive break of 1.0675 resistance will indicate that larger rally from 0.9929 is resuming and should target a test on 1.0851 resistance next. |
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Swiss Franc to Outperform other 'Safe' CurrenciesA comeback of concerns about global economic slowdown has induced strong demand for safe-haven assets. While stocks, commodities and other growth assets got dumped, bond prices rallied, pushing yields to record lows, which currencies that are considered as 'safe' soared. While USD, JPY and CHF are traditionally considered shelters when risk aversion increases given the abundant liquidity and solid economic backdrop in the countries, we expect strength of Swiss franc to continue in the near-term as market confidence remains fragile. It should also outperform USD and JPY as Switzerland has relatively stable fundamentals than the US and Japan. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5500Cable's rally after breaking above the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.5373 earlier and although price has retreated from 1.5581, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5496) would turn into support and the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5485) should hold, bring another rise towards resistance at 1.5620. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 85.35As the greenback stabilized above the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 83.58 temporary low to bring retracement to 85.09 (previous support), then towards 85.30/35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 86.39-83.58), however, reckon resistance at 85.82 would hold from there and bring retreat later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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