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Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Dives again Following Treasury Yields, Intervention Risk IgnoredUSD/JPY dives again today following the sharp fall in treasury yields. Yield on 30 year bonds fell to 3.776% while yield on 10 year note also dropped to 2.614%. Both were way off last week's close of 3.87% and 2.686% and both hit new 16 months low. The benchmark 10 year JGB yield also dropped to 7-year low of 0.945% following poor GDP data from Japan earlier today. German bund yield and UK GIlt yield both stay near recent low on concern of global economic slow down. Some fresh selling in USD/JPY is seen in early US session after disappointing Empire state manufacturing index. Investors seem to be forgetting the risk of intervention on USD/JPY. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 85.71; (P) 86.04; (R1) 86.52; More. USD/JPY's sharp fall today dragged 4 hours MACD below signal line and indicates that recovery from 84.71 was completed at 86.36. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Such development dampens the view that USD/JPY has bottomed and argue that recent decline is still in progress. As noted before, sustained trading below 84.71 will confirm long term down trend resumption for 80 psychological level next. Though, above 86.36 will put focus back to 88.11 resistance instead. |
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Widening Yield Spread Signaled Worries over EU Crisis Re-emergedRisk aversion obviously re-emerged as worries about economic slowdown. While the focus has been place on the US and China, there are signs that sovereign crisis concerns have loomed again. The 2Q10 GDP report, telling 2 stories in core and peripheral European economies, raised concerns about region's development in the second half of the year. Yields on peripheral European government soared last week while spreads with corresponding German bunds widened to a level not seen since early May. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold short entered at 1.0440Despite intra-day retreat from 1.0447 (we entered short here at 1.0440) to 1.0372, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above Friday's low at 1.0350, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as resistance at 1.0494 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5575Current rebound has retained our near term bullishness for another corrective rebound to 1.5680-89 (Friday's high and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), however, break there is needed to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5712-14 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5999 to 1.5535 and previous resistance) which is likely to hold from here. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2925 or Buy at 1.2670As the single currency has edged higher on short-covering, suggesting further consolidation above intra-day low of 1.2734 would be seen and retracement to Friday's high of 1.2906 would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.2925-33 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3233 to 1.2734 and previous resistance) and bring another decline. Below support at 1.2732-34 would extend recent fall from 1.3334 to 1.2700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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