Saturday, August 7, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 8-7-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Dollar Broadly Lower as Markets Prepare for More Easing from Fed

Dollar was broadly lower last week as poor non-farm payroll report intensified speculation that Fed will re-start the quantitative easing program in this week's meeting. Dollar index dropped to as low as 80.08 before closing at 80.41. Indeed, it was the ninth consecutive week of decline in the index, which was the worst losing streak since 2004. EUR/USD breached 1.33 level briefly before closing at 1.3278 while USD/JPY dived to 85.01, inches above 2009 low of 84.81. The Japanese yen continued to stay in range against most currencies, except dollar, as stocks maintained gain in spite of poor job data. Meanwhile, Canadian dollar lagged behind other majors for it's own poor employment data.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's down trend extend further last week and reached as low as 85.01. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 84.81 low. Break there will confirm that medium term down trend has resumed and should target 80 psychological level next. On the upside, above 85.72 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But after all, outlook will remain bearish as long as 88.11 resistance holds and we'd expect recent decline to extend further.

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ECB Delivered Upbeat Economic Outlook

While ECB maintained the main refinancing rate at 1%, the upbeat economic outlook was encouraging. President Trichet said in the statement that there's 'strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010' while data for the third quarter are 'better than expected'. The central bank continued to view the current key ECB interest rates remain 'appropriate' and 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'.

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RBA Left OCR Unchanged At 4.5%, Taking A Wait-And-See Stance

The RBA left the OCR unchanged at 4.5% for the 3rd consecutive month. Few surprises were seen in the accompanying statement. The overall tone was similar to that of July while the economic outlook was also unchanged.

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Suggested Readings

The Week in Review and Preview


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