Friday, August 13, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-13-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted by Strong German GDP, Dollar and Yen Pullback

Market sentiments are lifted by strong Germany data in early European session. Preliminary reading of Q2 GDP showed spectacular 2.2% qoq growth, way above expectation of 1.3% qoq. This was indeed the strongest number since reunification two decades ago. Euro extends its recovery against dollar and yen after the release but it seems that Sterling and Canadian dollar are even stronger on sentiments. Meanwhile, Aussie followed Kiwi to rebound against dollar and yen after release of stronger than expected retail sales data from New Zealand, which showed 0.9% growth in June comparing to consensus of 0.5%. Technical indicators show that a temporary top is formed in both dollar and yen and we'd expect more consolidations before the week closes.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.29; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.96; More

EUR/JPY's break of 110.95 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 109.22 and some more sideway trading could be seen. But after all, upside should be limited by 112.02 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, whole rise from 107.30 should have completed at 114.72 already. Below 109.22 will target a test on 107.30 first. However, above 112.02 will indicate that consolidation from 107.30 is still in progress and another high above 114.72 might then be seen before long term down trend resumption.

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Intervention Talks on Japanese Yen‏

USDJPY rebounded to above 86 after the currency pair briefly broke below the then-15-year-low of 84.82 made in November 2009. Speculations on government intervention heightened as Nikkei English News said Japanese Vice Finance Minister Rintaro Tamaki will meet BOJ officials. Strength in Japanese yen against major currencies accelerated in recent months as investors, after enjoying modest recovery from recession in the second half of 2009, resumed concerns over global economic slowdown. Tightening policies in China, sovereign crisis in the Eurozone as well weaker-than-expected economic indicators in the US have been a drag on risk appetite. Despite sluggishness in Japan's economy, JPY's rally has been caused by risk aversion and narrowing in the gap between US-Japan bond yields. With USDJPY having a touch below 84.82, the question now is whether, when and how the government will do something to prevent it from further appreciation. We expect the Ministry of Finance (MOF) will continue using verbiage which is practically ineffective while the BOJ will remain 'reactive' and wait for more appreciation before further easing. The bottom line is that the all-time low of 79.75 in April1995 should remain intact.

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Economic Indicators Update




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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.90% 0.50% 0.40%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jun 1.50% 0.60% -0.20%
6:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 P 2.20% 1.30% 0.20% 0.50%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul -0.20% -0.40%
7:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul 0.80% 0.90%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jun -2.0B -3.0B
9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.70% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q2 P 1.40% 0.60%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jun 2.00% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.20% -0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul 1.20% 1.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jul 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jul 0.40% -0.50%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jul 0.30% -0.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 69.8 67.8
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5710

Just as suggested in our previous update, although the British pound extended marginal weakness to 1.5562, cable was unable to drop below indicated support at 1.5553 and has rebounded on short-covering, suggesting consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.5685-95 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5910 to 1.5562) is likely, however, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge around 1.5714 (yesterday's high) and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.40

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally as price broke above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting near term bullishness remains for the rise from 84.72 temporary low to bring test of 86.25 resistance, break there would retain bullishness for retracement of early decline to 86.42/46 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12 to 84.72 and previous resistance), however, overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond next resistance at 86.89 (just above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement)

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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