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Mid-Day Report: US Retail Sales Slightly Below Expectation, Markets Stay in ConsolidationMarkets are generally staying in tight range in early US session as consolidations continue. US retail sales missed expectation slightly by rising 0.4% in July, with ex-auto sales rose 0.2%. Consumer inflation data were inline with expectation with headline CPI up slightly to 1.2% yoy while core CPI was unchanged at 0.9% yoy in July. Dollar index is still limited below yesterday's high of 82.78 while yen crosses are also bounded in consolidations. We'd expect more sideway trading as the week closes. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5521; (P) 1.5617; (R1) 1.5672; More. Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. With a temporary low in place at 1.5561, more consolidations would be seen and recovery might extend to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5729) and above. Nevertheless, risk now remain on the downside as long as 1.5997 resistance holds. Decisive break of near term rising trend line (now at 1.5537) will be an important indication of reversal and will turn focus to 1.5123 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4230 to 1.5997 at 1.5114) for confirmation. |
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Intervention Talks on Japanese YenUSDJPY rebounded to above 86 after the currency pair briefly broke below the then-15-year-low of 84.82 made in November 2009. Speculations on government intervention heightened as Nikkei English News said Japanese Vice Finance Minister Rintaro Tamaki will meet BOJ officials. Strength in Japanese yen against major currencies accelerated in recent months as investors, after enjoying modest recovery from recession in the second half of 2009, resumed concerns over global economic slowdown. Tightening policies in China, sovereign crisis in the Eurozone as well weaker-than-expected economic indicators in the US have been a drag on risk appetite. Despite sluggishness in Japan's economy, JPY's rally has been caused by risk aversion and narrowing in the gap between US-Japan bond yields. With USDJPY having a touch below 84.82, the question now is whether, when and how the government will do something to prevent it from further appreciation. We expect the Ministry of Finance (MOF) will continue using verbiage which is practically ineffective while the BOJ will remain 'reactive' and wait for more appreciation before further easing. The bottom line is that the all-time low of 79.75 in April1995 should remain intact. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 111.60Despite yesterday's marginal fall to 109.23, as the single currency has then rebounded to an intra-day high of 111.12 today, suggesting consolidation would take place, however, as top has been formed at 114.74, upside should be limited to 111.55/60 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 113.95 to 109.23) and renewed selling interest should emerge there, bring another decline to 109.00, then towards 108.50, however, reckon support at 107.30 (wave 3 low) would hold due to oversold condition. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9070Although the Australian dollar has rebounded after falling to 0.8915 yesterday and consolidation above this level would take place today, as top has been formed earlier at 0.9223, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9065/70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8915) and 0.9105 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should hold, bring another decline later. Break of said support would bring retracement of early upmove to 0.8860-71 (previous resistance) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5710Despite intra-day retreat from 1.5680 on risk aversion, break of yesterday's low of 1.5562 is needed to signal decline has resumed and extend weakness towards 1.5506 (50% projection of 1.5910 to 1.5562 measuring from 1.5680), otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective rebound to 1.5666-80 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and intra-day resistance) cannot be ruled out. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.40Despite intra-day rise to 85.19, the subsequent retreat after failing to penetrate strong resistance at 86.25 suggests further consolidation would take place and mild downside bias remains for pullback to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 85.49) cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon the lower Kumo (now at 85.31) would hold and bring another rebound later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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