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Daily Report: Traders Close USD/JPY Shorts on Intervention Risk, Dollar ConsolidatesDollar retreated mildly in Asian today as markets stabilized a little bit. Asian stocks played catch up to the sharp -2.5% fall in US stocks overnight. Though, Nikkei was down mildly by -0.86% only with help from speculation on yen intervention and the deeper pull back in the Japanese yen. It's reported that Finance Ministry and Bank of Japan officials met to discuss on intervention. Also, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced yesterday to conduct an emergency survey of approximately 200 companies on the impact of the strong yen. While USD/JPY's outlook is still bearish in near term below 86.22 resistance, we might see more traders closing short positions near to 85 level on intervention risk. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 84.88; (P) 85.17; (R1) 85.62; More. USD/JPY recovers strongly after making a temporary low at 84.71 and intraday bias turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that outlook will remain bearish as long as 88.22 resistance holds and another fall remains in favor. Sustained trading above 84.81 support will pave the wave to 80 psychological level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 86.22 will argue that fall from 94.97 is possibly over and turn bias to the upside for 88.11 resistance for confirmation. |
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BOE Revises Down GDP And CPI ForecastsAs unveiled in the quarterly inflation report, the BOE revised down its forecasts on economic growth and inflation, reflecting the softening in business and consumer confidence, the faster pace of fiscal consolidation and a slower improvement in credit conditions. Fed Sparks Unconventional Measures By Reinvesting MBS ProceedsThe Fed announced to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-dated Treasuries as the 'pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near-term than had been anticipated'. This is the first step for the central bank to adopt unconventional monetary policies in more than a year and signaled policymakers' commitment to keep interest rates low and bolster the economy. Initial reaction appeared to be positive with Treasury prices rallying further. The market obviously expects further easing to come. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0500Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.0630, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat from there suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0521), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above 1.0496-97 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), bring another rise later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.00Despite intra-day retreat to 84.94, as the greenback has rebounded partly due to rumor of BOJ checking rate, suggesting further consolidation above this week's low at 84.72 would take place with mild upside bias for test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 85.52), then the upper Kumo (now at 85.71) but break of the cloud top is needed to retain near term bullishness for retracement of recent decline to 86.00/05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12 to 84.72) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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