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Daily Report: Yen and Swissy Firm on Risk AversionJapanese Yen and Swiss Franc are firm on risk aversion following broad based decline in Asian stocks. Poor data from US triggered worry of double dip again and sent DOW -1.39% lower. Nikkei followed by dropping -1.96% to 9179 today while major Asian indices are generally lower. Commodity currencies are generally soft with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY edged lower ahead of election on August 21. Yen is trying to to extend rally against Euro and Sterling but is so far limited by this week's higher. Dollar is generally mixed. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0229; (P) 1.0347; (R1) 1.0436; More. USD/CHF drops to as low as 1.0257 before recovering mildly. With 1.0463 resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. As noted before, whole fall from 1.1729 is still in progress and should target lower trend line support (now at 1.0034). But we'd anticipate strong support at around parity to contain downside, at least initially. On the upside, break of 1.0463 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Action Insight Market Overview |
China's Open Up of Bond Market Only Has Gradual Impact on RMBAt the announcement made on August 17, the People's Bank of China announced the launch of a pilot scheme that 3 kinds of financial institutions, namely foreign central banks, RMB settlement banks in Hong Kong and Macau, and foreign banks participating in the RMB direct settlement program, may invest their RMB holdings in China's interbank bond market. While all investments are subject to PBOC's approval and specific quotas are assigned to individual institutions, the scheme is an important milestone for internationalization of RMB. Yet, we think the scheme's impact on pushing the RMB as a reserve currency is more symbolic than practical. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0400Despite yesterday's selloff to 1.0257, as the greenback has rebounded from there, a hammer candlestick pattern was formed on the hourly chart, suggesting a minor low is in place and consolidation above this level would take place with mild upside bias for retracement to the flat ground Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0362), then towards 1.0399-1.0408 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0630 to 1.0257 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 85.50Although the greenback rebounded after yesterday's selloff to 84.89 and further consolidation should take place, as long as resistance at 85.92/96 holds, bearishness remains for another decline, break of said yesterday's low would signal early downtrend has resumed for retest of 84.72, then towards 84.25/30 (61.8% projection of 88.12 to 84.72 measuring from 86.39) but reckon 84.00 would hold from here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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