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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rebound, No QE from Fed?Markets are still taking about two things in early US session. Firstly, slow down in China's growth. Secondly, Fed might refrain from adding introducing additional quantitative easing measures in today's announcement. Dollar is sharply higher against major currencies with the dollar index holding well above 81 level now. Crude oil drops back to below 80 level while Gold breaks 1200 on dollar strength while US stocks futures are pointing to a lower open. it still early to call for a reversal in recent weakness in dollar. But a short term bottom should at least be made and we'd favor more upside in the greenback for the rest of the week at least. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0250; (P) 1.0274; (R1) 1.0294; More. USD/CAD rises further to as high as 1.0384 so far today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0512). On the downside, below 1.0305 will turn intraday bias neural and bring retreat. Nevertheless, note that a short term bottom is formed at 1.0106 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Hence, another rise would remain in favor as long as 1.0106 support holds. |
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| Special Reports |
FED Unlikely to Announce QE Plans in AugustFocus of the upcoming FOMC meeting is whether the Fed announces to enter the next phase of QE, i.e. to purchase assets to maintain or expand the size of the balance sheet. Although recent US economic indicators have surprised to the downside and speculations of QE intensified after Friday's payroll report, we do not expect the Fed to announce anything new other than a more dovish statement at Tuesday's meeting. Read more... |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 113.00Intra-day retreat on risk aversion after the release of worse-than-expected Chinese data suggests caution on our long and indicated support at 112.57 must hold to retain our consolidative view and bring another rebound later. Above 114.19 minor resistance would bring a retest of 114.74 resistance, break there would confirm upmove from wave v low of 107.30 has resumed and extend to 115.00 and possibly to 115.50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3080As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting the decline from 1.3334 top is still in progress and may bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.3099 (50% projection of 1.3308 to 1.3135 measuring from 1.3185), however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3078 (61.8% projection) and bring rebound later to 1.3185/88 (intra-day minor resistance and current level of the Kijun-Sen), however, the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3226) should limit upside, bring another decline. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5665As the British pound has remained under pressure, suggesting the decline from 1.5999 top is still in progress and weakness to 1.5700 is likely, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5663/65 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5125 to 1.5999) and cable may stage a rebound from there later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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