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Daily Report: Markets Staying in Consolidation ahead of Bernanke and US GDPMarkets are staying is familiar range as traders await Bernanke's speech and US GDP revision today. Economists expect US Q2 GDP growth to be revised down to 1.4% annualized rate. Meanwhile Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver his first speech since Fed announced its QE Lite program. Investors will look for hints from Bernanke on possible additional stimulus measures to avoid entering into a double dip recession. Overall markets sentiments have somewhat stabilized after initial selloff earlier this week but would be subject to much volatility from these two events. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 130.52; (P) 131.27; (R1) 131.84; More GBP/JPY's recovery from 128.77 is still in progress and might extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 132.07. However, upside is still expected to be limited by 132.76 support turned resistance and bring resumption of fall from 137.75. Below 130.58 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 128.77 first. Break there will target a test on medium term low of 126.73 next. However, note that sustained break of 132.76 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus to 137.75 resistance instead. |
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| Special Reports |
Swiss Franc to Outperform other 'Safe' CurrenciesA comeback of concerns about global economic slowdown has induced strong demand for safe-haven assets. While stocks, commodities and other growth assets got dumped, bond prices rallied, pushing yields to record lows, which currencies that are considered as 'safe' soared. While USD, JPY and CHF are traditionally considered shelters when risk aversion increases given the abundant liquidity and solid economic backdrop in the countries, we expect strength of Swiss franc to continue in the near-term as market confidence remains fragile. It should also outperform USD and JPY as Switzerland has relatively stable fundamentals than the US and Japan. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0345Despite yesterday's resumption of decline to 1.0222, as suggested in our previous update, instant sharp fall below there should be limited and the recovery from there together with the flat ground Kijun-Sen suggest consolidation would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom now at 1.0292) and possibly 1.0319 resistance cannot be ruled out. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2695Despite yesterday's rise to 1.2765, the subsequent retreat from there suggests caution on our long position entered at 1.2695 and minor support at 1.2666 needs to hold to retain bullishness for the rise from 1.2588 temporary low to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline. Above said resistance would extend gain to 1.2795-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2923 to 1.2588) but reckon resistance at 1.2833 would hold from here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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