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Daily Report: Risk Aversion Back, Yen Crosses to Heading to New Lows, EUR/CHF Extends Down TrendYen strengthens across the board today as risk aversion dominates Asian markets. Nikkei dropped as much as -3.55% to close at 8824 in spite of yesterday's additional quantitative measures from BoJ. Former BoJ policy board member Nobuyuki Nakahara said that BoJ's measures were "too little and too late" and "can't stop the yen's advance." Asian equities are also broadly lower following late selling in US stocks which saw DOW back pressing 10000 level. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have taken out minor support levels which indicates that last week's recovery is over and we'd likely seen new lows in theses yen crosses in near term. Swiss franc is also strong with EUR/CHF broken to new record low while GBP/CHF breaks 1.5825 support to resume recent down trend. Dollar is also benefited from risk aversion and is firm except versus yen and swissy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2935; (P) 1.3039; (R1) 1.3099; More EUR/CHF breaks 1.2970 low to resume the whole fall from 1.3923 and reaches as low as 1.2912 so far. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.4587 to 1.3072 from 1.3923 at 1.2408 next. On the upside, break of 1.3143 resistance is needed to signal that EUR/CHF has made a short term bottom. Otherwise, outlook will still remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB To Extend Full Allotment Of Refinancing Operations Towards Year-EndAt Thursday's ECB, president Trichet is expected to leave the main-refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the view that current interest rates are 'appropriate' while 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'. Market's focus will be on the press conference where Trichet will announce the new set of staff macroeconomic projections and extend emergency support for the Eurozone until early 2011. BOJ Pledged 10 Trillion Yen For 6 Months To Stimulate RecoveryAt the emergency held today, the Bank of Japan announced additional easing measures to boost Japan's economic recovery. The BOJ introduced a 6-month term in the fixed-rate funds-supplying operation against pooled collateral and substantially increased the amount of funds to be provided through the operation. This is the first unconventional measures that the BOJ adopted in 5 months. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 1.0255As the greenback has remained under pressure in part due to cross-buying in Swiss franc, suggesting caution on our long and support at 1.0220 needs to hold to retain prospect for another rebound later today, above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0278) would signal the retreat from 1.0309 has ended, then another corrective rise to this level would follow. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5495Current cross-inspired selloff and the breach of 1.5442 support signals early rebound from 1.5373 (last week's low) has ended at 1.5599 and further weakness to 1.5389 is under way, break there would confirm early decline from 1.5999 has resumed and bring retest of 1.5373, then towards 1.5330/35 (50% projection of 1.5910 to 1.5373 measuring from 1.5599) but reckon 1.5322 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4228 to 1.5999) would limit downside. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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