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Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion to Continue after Poor Durables OrdersRisk aversion is set to continue in early US session after poor durable goods orders data. Headline orders rose a mere 0.3% in July comparing to 3.0% expectation. Ex-transport orders are even worse and dropped -3.8%. European stocks failed to hold on to earlier gains and turned red. More weakness is anticipated together with a lower open in US equities in case of more downside surprises in housing data. Canadian dollar and Australian dollar break yesterday's high as trades sell risks. Though, European majors are still steady against dollar and yen. |
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AUD/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8769; (P) 0.8842; (R1) 0.8888; More AUD/USD's fall extends further to as low as 0.8779 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper decline should be seen to lower channel support (now at 0.8737). As noted before, decisive break there will indicate that whole choppy rise from 0.8066 is finished too and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this support level next. On the upside, above 0.8895 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9078 resistance holds. |
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Swiss Franc to Outperform other 'Safe' CurrenciesA comeback of concerns about global economic slowdown has induced strong demand for safe-haven assets. While stocks, commodities and other growth assets got dumped, bond prices rallied, pushing yields to record lows, which currencies that are considered as 'safe' soared. While USD, JPY and CHF are traditionally considered shelters when risk aversion increases given the abundant liquidity and solid economic backdrop in the countries, we expect strength of Swiss franc to continue in the near-term as market confidence remains fragile. It should also outperform USD and JPY as Switzerland has relatively stable fundamentals than the US and Japan. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0380Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.0268, failure to retest recent low at 1.0257 suggests further consolidation would be seen and another rebound to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0354) cannot be ruled out, however, upper Kumo (now at 1.0405) should hold, bring another decline. A break below said support at 1.0257 would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0220 (61.8% projection of 1.0630 to 1.0257 measuring from 1.0451) and possibly towards 1.0186 (100% projection of 1.0630 to 1.0350 measuring from 1.0466). Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 85.00Although the greenback has eased after intra-day rise to 84.68 and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 84.14) is likely, break of 83.90/91 minor support is needed to signal rebound from yesterday's low of 83.58 has ended there and bring resumption of decline for retest of this support. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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