Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-4-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Boosted by ADP Report and Bank Earnings

Risk appetite is given a lift in early US session following better than ADP report. The report showed 42k expansion in the private job market in July versus consensus of 36k. That was the sixth consecutive monthly gain in a row even though there's no sign of acceleration in the recovery. In additional, UK's largest mortgage lender LLoyds Banking Group reported bigger than expected profits of GBP 1.6b, which boosts hope of recovery in European banking sector. Major european indices rebound strongly from intraday low while US stocks futures also point to higher opening. Aussie takes the lead in currency market by breaking through yesterday's high of 0.9148 against dollar while some strength is seen in Canadian dollar too. Yen, on the other hand, pare some of this week's gain.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9082; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9161; More

AUD/USD rises strongly in early US session and the break of 0.91480 indicates the recent rally is still in progress. Intraday bias is back to the upside. Whole rise from 0.8066 is expected to continue towards 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.9067 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Though, break of 0.8904 support is still needed to be the first sign of topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE

Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC July Shop Price Index 1.50% -- 1.50%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun 3.54B 1.81B 1.65B 1.83B
01:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q2 3.10% 2.20% 4.80%
07:55 EUR German PMI Services Jul F 56.5 57.3 57.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jul F 55.8 56 56
08:30 GBP PMI Services Jul 53.1 54.6 54.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul -57.20% -- -47.10%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 42K 36K 13K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Jul 53.3 53.8
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M 7.3M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0500

Despite intra-day retreat from 1.0434 to 1.0381, as the greenback has rebounded after the release of ADP job data, suggesting further consolidation above 1.0348 temporary low would be seen and upside risk has increased for corrective rise to 1.0460 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0640 to 1.0348) and then to resistance at 1.0477, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0490-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) , bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5805

Although the British pound has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.5892, above resistance at 1.5968 is needed to confirm recent upmove has once again resumed and extend gain towards psychological resistance at 1.6000 but reckon 1.6050 would hold and risk from there is seen for a correction later.

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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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