Thursday, August 19, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-19-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Dips again as Jobless Claims Rose to 500k

Dollar attempted to resume rally earlier today but failed ahead of this week's high against euro and sterling. European majors are generally supported by positive news from Europe. Meanwhile, Japanese yen and swiss franc are trying to build up some strength in early US session after poor jobless claim number from US, which jumped back to 500k level. Canadian dollar pares earlier gains after leading indicators rose less than expected by 0.4% mom in July while wholesale sales dropped -0.3% mom in June.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 85.20; (P) 85.44; (R1) 85.69; More.

USD/JPY dips again in early US session but is staying in tight range so far. Intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, note that recent decline is still in favor to continue as long as USD/JPY stays in the falling channel (resistance at 86.74). Below 85.11 minor support will argue that such decline is resuming for 84.71 and break there will target 80 psychological level next. However, decisive break of the upper channel resistance will strongly suggest that USD/JPY has bottomed out and will bring rally to 88.11 resistance for confirmation.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q2 1.40% 0.60% 1.30%
22:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q2 1.10% 0.70% 1.80%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jul 0.50% 0.10% 0.60%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jul 3.70% 3.30% 1.70%
06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 2.89B 1.86B 1.77B
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 1.10% 0.40% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul 3.2B 5.1B 14.5B
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul P 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jul P 2.30% 1.90% 3.00% 3.10%
08:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Jul 47K 47K 48K
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Aug 9.1 -- 2.2
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Aug -14 -14 -16
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jul 0.40% 0.70% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun -0.30% 0.40% -0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 500K 480K 484K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul 0.10% -0.20%
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Aug 7.5 5.1
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B 37B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0385

Dollar's selloff after breaking indicated support at 1.0385 confirms recent decline has resumed and weakness to 1.0285/88 (1.618 times projection of 1.0630 to 1.0465 measuring from 1.0555) is under way, below there would extend towards 1.0225/30 (50% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0332 measuring from 1.0630), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.0185/90 (100% projection of 1.0630 to 1.0350 measuring from 1.0466).

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5555

Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.5510, the strong rebound from 1.5510 to 1.5667 after the release of better-than-expected UK data has retained our view that temporary low has been formed at 1.5498 yesterday and further consolidation would take place with upside bias for test of 1.5689 resistance, then towards 1.5703-14 resistance area.

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