Thursday, August 5, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-5-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: EUR and GBP Retreats Further ahead of ECB and BoE, NZD Tumbles on Poor Job Data

Euro and Sterling continue to retreat against dollar ahead of ECB and BoE rate decision. Dollar enjoyed a strong rebound overnight as speculations on more quantitative easing from Fed were cooled by solid economic data. More recovery would likely be seen in the greenback against European majors but momentum could remain mild as traders are cautious ahead of Friday's NFP. Meanwhile, Aussie is dragged down by weakness in Kiwi after a much poorer than expected employment report.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5838; (P) 1.5900; (R1) 1.5945; More.

The break of 1.5860 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 1.5967 after just missing 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside for retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5689). Nevertheless, recent rally should still be in progress as long as 1.5546 cluster support holds (which is close to 50% retracement of 1.5123 to 1.5967 and 23.6% retracement from 1.4230 to 1.5967). Sustained trading above 1.5968 will pave the way to retest 1.7043 resistance next.

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Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE

Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 -0.30% 0.50% 1.00%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 1.50% -0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claim 456K 457K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 0.60% -10.80%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B 28B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0450

Yesterday's rally signals a temporary low has been formed earlier at 1.0348 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.0555, break there would bring a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.0590/00, however, reckon resistance at 1.0640 would hold from here and further choppy consolidation would take place ahead of Friday's release of U.S. data.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.70

Although dollar has retreated after intra-day rise to 86.46, as yesterday's strong rebound from 85.32 suggests a temporary low has been formed, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 85.77) would contain weakness and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 86.72 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12 to 85.32), however, reckon resistance at 86.89-99 would limit upside and price should falter below 87.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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