Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-31-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Climbs on Strong CPI, Dollar Tumbles on ADP Disappointment

Euro reversed earlier loss after a string of strong data and more buying is seen in early US session after disappointment from ADP job report. Markets expected 40k expansion in the private job market in March but the data showed -23k contraction instead. Dollar is sharply lower against European majors and was even lower against yen but remains steady against Aussie. There is also additional pressure to the dollar from Crude oil which broke recent high of 83.16 to resume the up trend.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.40

As euro has risen again after finding renewed buying interest above overnight support at 124.31, suggesting the wave iii upmove is still in progress and further gain to 126.40/50 would be seen, however, overbought condition should limit upside to 127.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9120

Although aussie's retreat from this week's high of 0.9218 suggests first leg og wave 3 has ended there and consolidation would be seen, pullback should be limited to 0.9110 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9001-0.9218) and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would bring retest of wave 1 top at 0.9253 and break there would confirm wave 3 is underway towards resistance at 0.9331later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4985; (P) 1.5055; (R1) 1.5138; More

GBP/USD's rise extends further to as high as 1.5184 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.5381 resistance. Note that rise from 1.4798 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern that started at 1.4783 and hence, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.5042 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CHFJPY 88.20 86.95 +125 +1.42%
CADJPY 92.06 90.91 +115 +1.25%
GBPJPY 141.51 139.75 +176 +1.24%
EURJPY 125.91 124.41 +150 +1.19%
AUDCAD 0.9281 0.9379 -98 -1.06%

Last Updated: Mar 31, 11:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 31, 11:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar -15 -13 -14
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb -1.40% 0.30% 1.20% 1.10%
06:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb -9.30% -0.80% -8.10%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar -31K 8K 7K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar 8.00% 8.20% 8.20% 8.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 10.00% 10.00% 9.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 1.50% 1.10% 0.90%
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 1.93 1.9 1.87 1.9
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar -23K 40K -20K -24K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 61 62.6
14:00 USD Factory Orders Feb 0.50% 1.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M 7.3M
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