Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-2-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Canadian Dollar Extends Rally after Upbeat BoC Statement

Canadian dollar is the strongest currency today and extends its strength after an upbeat statement from BoC. Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected and reiterated the conditional commitment to be on hold until end of Q2. NEvertheless, the bank did acknowledged that "level of economic activity in Canada has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected" in the latest MPR. Also core inflation "has been slightly firmer than projected" too. USD/CAD dived through 1.0369 support earlier today and is set to take on 1.0205/0223 support zone.

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Special Reports

RBA Raised Cash Rate to 4%, Resuming the Tightening Cycle

After pausing in February, the RBA resumed its tightening cycle in March by announcing to raise its cash rate by +25 bps to 4%. In the accompanying statement, the central bank stated that interest rates to most borrowers 'remain lower than average' and 'growth is likely to be close to trend and inflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 119.10

Although the stronger-than-expected retreat from 121.90 signals the wave v is still in progress and break of 119.66 would extend one more fall to 119.10 (approx. 50% projection of 125.24-119.66 measuring from 121.90) but 118.45 (61.8% projection) should hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8920

Aussie's rally from 0.8800 signals the retreat from 0.9072 has ended there as wave ii and further gain to said resistance would be seen, above there would add credence to this view and signal the wave iii is under way for gain towards 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance) later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0357; (P) 1.0465; (R1) 1.0521; More.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.0679 extends further to as low as 1.0308 in early US session. The break of 1.0369 support confirms that whole decline from 1.0779 has resumed. Further decline should now be seen towards 1.0205/0223 support zone. Nevertheless, as the current decline is treated as part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1.0205, we'd expect some strong support at 1.0205/0223 support zone to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.0407 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.5472 1.5606 -134 -0.87%
USDCAD 1.0327 1.0413 -86 -0.83%
CADJPY 86.25 85.56 +69 +0.80%
AUDNZD 1.2969 1.2870 +99 +0.76%
EURCAD 1.4016 1.4120 -104 -0.74%

Last Updated: Mar 02, 14:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 02, 14:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jan 4.90% 5.10% 5.10% 5.20%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jan 1.70% 2.60% 2.10%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Feb 2.20% 4.80% 4.90%
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jan 1.20% 0.80% -0.70% -0.90%
03:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
06:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.40% 0.10% 0.50%
06:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q4 0.60% -0.50% -1.30%
09:30 GBP PMI Construction Feb 48.5 48.9 48.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jan 0.70% 0.60% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan -1.00% -1.10% -2.90%
14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
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