Monday, March 29, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-29-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Daily Report: Euro Gapped Higher But Lost Momentum

While euro gaps higher today on temporary resolution to concern on Greece, it's failing to hold on to earlier gains and weakens in crosses as market enters into European session. EUR/GBP fails below last week's high of 0.9042 is trading back below 0.9 level. EUR/AUD drops back from intraday high of 1.4899 to as low as 1.4765 so far while EUR/CAD down from intraday high of 1.3815. As noted in our report "The EU-IMF Bailout Plan for Greece May Only Provide Short-Term Boost to Euro"while the announcement of the financial package may alleviate market concerns over Greece's sovereign crisis and boost the euro in the short-term, risks of insolvency in Greece still remains. At the same time, as deficit problems in peripheral European countries linger, the euro will still be under pressure in the medium- to long-term.

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Special Report

The EU-IMF Bailout Plan for Greece May Only Provide Short-Term Boost to Euro

The Eurozone members agreed on a package which provides loans for Greece in meeting its debt obligations, in case it is unable to raise funds from international bond markets. Loans, with no actual amount specified while press suggested it to be 22B euro, in the package will be made by both the Eurozone (2/3) and the IMF (1/3). The meeting statement stressed that Provision of the loans will be made only if 'market financing is insufficient'. Financing will not be provided at average euro area interest rates, but at non-subsidised interest rates, so as to 'set incentives to return to market financing as soon as possible by risk adequate pricing'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5110

The euro-led rebound from 1.4798 suggests the fall from 1.5382 may have formed a temporary low there and price just broke above the Kijun-Sen, initial upside bias is seen for stronger correction to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5089), however, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge around resistance at 1.5112 and bring retreat later. A firm breach below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4886) would signal rebound from 1.4798 has possibly ended and extend weakness to 1.4830/40 first. Looking ahead, only below 1.4798 would confirm early decline has finally resumed for retest of 1.4781.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 91.45

As resistance at 92.96 (last week's as well as a over 2-month high) has continued to hold, suggesting further consolidation below this level would be seen and retracement to 91.76 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 89.83 to 92.96) cannot be ruled out, however, 91.40 (50% Fibonacci retracement) should contain pullback and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend recent rise from 88.14 to 93.31-36 (previous chart resistance and 61.8% projection of 89.83-92.42 measuring from 91.76) but reckon resistance at 93.78 would hold from here, bring correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.26; (P) 123.73; (R1) 124.48; More.

EUR/JPY's recovery from 121.05 is still in progress and edges higher to 124.67 so far today. Further rise could still be seen but still, we'd expect strong resistance at 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) to conclude the consolidation from 119.64 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 121.05 will suggest that recent down trend is possibly resuming for another low below 119.64. However, note that sustained break of 125.22 cluster resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 120.69, h: 119.64, rs: 121.05) and will argue that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in medium term and will turn focus to 126.88 support turned resistance.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 84.48 83.59 +89 +1.05%
AUDUSD 0.9117 0.9039 +78 +0.86%
NZDJPY 65.67 65.12 +55 +0.84%
GBPJPY 138.75 137.78 +97 +0.70%
NZDUSD 0.7088 0.7041 +47 +0.66%

Last Updated: Mar 29, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 29, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 4.20% 1.70% 2.60% 2.30%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 48.4K 48.2K
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar 97.1 95.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar -17 -17
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar -11 -13
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Mar 2 1
12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb 1.80% 2.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Feb 1.30% 1.40%
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